Sunday, October 19, 2008

>Nifty analysis

What do all of the following items have in common?
a) A needle in a haystack
b) A diamond in the rough
c) A confident investor in the INDIAN stock market.

Answer: They’re all next to impossible to find.

This October month is by far worst month since 2003 where 1st wave started on monthly chart.
We have already lost 22% in NIFTY this month with still 7,8 trading days pending.
Stocks are falling like cards,No support looks solid enough to hold this avalanche.
The biggest stock RELIANCE which holds 12% weightage in Nifty fell 5-9% consistently for the last 2 weeks,Which ensured that any relief rally which came got fizzled out in few days.
A positive point here Bluechip falling signals bad days are numbered.

On chart RELIANCE looks like should give a corrective bounce within next 100-120 points fall.

Coming back to "NIFTY"

The monthly chart suggests we are in 4th wave
Since wave 2 was small in size and time expect 4th wave to be big in size(which it already is)
as well as time consuming,So thinking that we would be out of this soon would be futile.


This could be a nightmare for INVESTORS but delight for Traders.

INVESTORS would have to adapt to the present conditions,They cannot just buy and sleep.
once you get 20-50% take your profits or Trail them and wait for next opportunity.

New high looks elusive for next 1-2 years at least .

With this slowdown in place ,Companies would have to cut down on many expenditures.
And usually the scissor falls on marketing.
Due to which I feel online marketing + Advertising would be more viable.
Try to find companies which are directly or indirectly get influenced by this
Do let me know too :) write in comments.

Coming back to "NIFTY"

As we witnessed each rally got washed out in few days.
We end up making a new low every time a rally is fizzled.
In this process we are making lower highs and lower lows.
An ideal case for falling wedge.
So keep this in mind and lookout for such pattern.

As for the chart 2000 in NIFTY is the crude sl for this 4th wave as below that the whole assumption of our waves goes for a toss .

Before that 2550-2600 the 2006 june lows is a very good support level.

Even before that 3000-2800 band too looks promising . We will see in coming days how these levels react .

Regards
Rish

4 comments:

Shiree said...

Dear Rish,
Excellent report. Your reports are likeable for the concise,focussed picture in shortest words. I was going through Advance Get analysis with the help of Nilesh and Rohit and feel 3000 a short term support for short term.
Shiree

kurichh said...

Thanks a lot sir..any idea from u is very appreciated...


Saurabh

hasit1970 said...

its very good

Hasit

hasit1970 said...

Now Nifty Touched 2495 low now what ?

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