Sunday, December 25, 2011

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

Over the weekend went through top 10 nifty stocks ,I think one more
possible scenario can emerge where nifty makes a endng diagonal,in
simple terms falling wedge,As of now i can see only 3 waves in each leg
so we need to keep a option open for ending diagonal possibility
Any how both counts suggest rise before fall.
Get a clear wave view in below labled hourly chart each leg shows 3 wave move.This
count suggests a move upto 4900+-50 where it finds resistance.
For the other count go through the previous post nifty counts

Thursday, December 22, 2011

>Nifty elliott wave analysis

As i have already stated we in Z corrective wave which again would be a
corrective wave combination of abc's or simple abc.
From the structure developing i am anticipating we have finished A leg 4639
and then started a big B leg which again is unfolding in abc structure
which already completed a and b leg and right now getting ready to pump up
in c to finish the big B we could well see a fast run up and nifty could see 5050,5100
in no time it this count is correct.

After that we can see the big C down unfolding.Lets see how market behaves
if it does something else i would revist counts.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

>Nifty analysis

At last a nifty update,Nifty almost did as i thought in wave terms
It went to 4640 then from there went to 5080+ and collapsed.
Read old post nifty counts
As of now its wait and watch we n
eed to see reaction near 4650
levels to ascertain the further course of action,Slowly trading would
become quite tuff save money fellow t
raders you would get unbelievable
rates to buy at a later stage.


Tuesday, December 06, 2011

>Indian rupee(INR)analysis

In recent times we saw 2008 financial crisis and the present eurozone credit crisis.
India also saw 2 major financial crises which led to 2 subsequent INR devaluation.

Foreign currency reserves are very critical aspect of any country's ability to engage in commerce
with other countries.
Usually the larger the foreign currency reserves the better the country is placed to fight
any financial crisis.India saw two major financial crises in year 1966 and 1991


As a developing economy, it is to be expected that India would import more than it exports. Despite government attempts to obtain a positive trade balance, India has had consistent balance of payment deficits since the 1950s. The 1966 devaluation was the result of the first major financial crisis the government faced.

6 June, 1966: Rupee is devalued, Rs 4.76 = $1, after devaluation, Rs 7.50 = $1 (57.5%)


In 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the value of a basket of currencies of major trading partners. At the end of 1990, the Government of India found itself in serious economic trouble. The government was close to default and its foreign exchange reserves had dried up to the point that India could barely finance three weeks’ worth of imports. In July of 1991 the Indian government devalued the rupee by between 18 and 19 percent.

March 1993: Unified exchange rate: $1 = Rs 31.37

We recently saw a all time low of$1= Rs 52.73 nov(22) 2011

USDINR monthly chart suggests their could be some consolidation between 54 to 48 levels
before going towards 58-60 .How its gonna effect economy need to be seen.

In 2008 nifty had fallen 51.8% (6136-2959)closing basis USDINR had rocketed to 52.50 by march 2009.

In 2011 we have fallen 17.9% (6177-5039) closing basis USDINR already touched a all time
high of 52.73
Testing time for economy ahead .


Thursday, December 01, 2011

>Mahindra & mahindra analysis

In my last post mahindra & mahindra analysis we had seen how
a violent 3rd wave eroded price valuenow since the sharp down channel
has been broken and still the rise i count looks corrective to me so a 4th
wave is on this should hit new low in some time below 680 at leastonce 5 down finishes can expected relief in the stock .

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

>Nifty analysis update

Nifty continues to fall, with small sideways uppish blips in between.Relentless selling
Anyone who tried catching this falling knife,Would surely have got burnt badly.
The chart shows a sleep parallel channel and we are yet to break that channel.
The fall has even breached the double bottom support 4700.
The parallel channel fall suggests we are still in 3rd wave fall ,I would give some more
time to nifty before deciding on targets again so till then take it easy.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

>stubborn 3rd wave in impulse(elliottwave)

Usually most of wave traders spend most of their time on charts trying to catch stubborn 3rdwave. As the rule says 3rd waves are usually the longest and fastest in terms of price
travel .It requires lot of practice and imaginative mind to figure out the perfect wave setup
for trade,With practice one can get hold of waves unfolding which in turn gives a solid edge
in timing much better than any indicator can provide.
Few things which can improve your wave counting ability!!
1)Count waves from a higher time frame and then gradually come to lower time frames.
2) Always try to count waves from important lows or highs.
3) Go through as many charts possible.
4)Counting impulse(5 waves) is easier than counting a correction or abc:).
5) Label the chart with your count with date and check at a later date how you fared.
this should be a daily routine,This can help in understanding market moves in detail.
6)Always have a alternative count in mind and as market moves figure out which count
fits best.
7) Gap ups and gap downs usually happen in 3rd wave,Also indicators can be in oversold or overbought for most of the time when market travels in 3rdwave.

I am attaching a chart of a stock punjloyd to show the wave counts
the green arrows are 3rd wavesHope these points help in counting waves cleanly.


Monday, November 21, 2011

>Mahindra and Mahindra analysis update

Auto sector as had mentioned witnessed sharp fall.M&M ,TATAMOTORS ,BAJAJ AUTO ,MARUTI ETC witnessed sharp falls,In my old post Auto sector had given analysis of the
auto sector heavy weight m&m it reacted sharply to the resistance and is already 100+ points down from top.It looks to be falling in impulse which suggests it would turnout to be a good
short again in rises keep an eye.A chart is attached to shown vicious impulse still on.


Friday, November 18, 2011

>Nifty elliott wave counts

Turbulence galore!!!
In my last nifty post nifty analysis had mentioned about Y ending in 4700-4600 range
we reversed from 4700+-20 points,Had categorically written about a good relief rally .
We did see fantastic pullback(4700-5400)a three wave move suggesting another complex
corrective wave.The following chart shows that.
The first chart shows the 3 wave up X relief.The second chart is weekly which is showing the
expected abc unfolding over next few months,a can be finishing near 4700+-50
b can go back up to 5000+-50 the final c can go to 4500 levels if it stretches then 4200-4000.
The point to stress here is you see each abc retraced 60% of previous abc ,Which usually happens in complex corrections,That's the reason we are yet to see panic in Indian markets as the rises retracing the drops upto 60% and dropping again so a slow drop nevertheless lowertops continuously !!!!!!,Would update if market does something else.


Sunday, September 25, 2011

>Mahindra and Mahindra elliottwave analysis

Auto sector has been not in sync with nifty few stocks are sideways ,Few are trending up
and few trending down .

M&M holds the highest weightage followed by tatamotors ,Bajaj auto , heromotoco and
maruti suzuki

I think this sector would peakout in some time and investors should book their profits in
this sector

M&M Looks to have finished 5 up on monthly charts or about to finish may kiss 850 once
Tatamotors is already in downtrend

on daily charts M&M wave count is labled on following chart followed by 5 up in monthly
On daily chart we are in process of finishing some sort of B up here we could be making a triangle or a flat in any case a 25% correction is not ruled out from current levels .

lets see how this sector behave in coming months can update accordingly .

Friday, August 26, 2011

>NIFTY Elliot wave counts

The nifty counts for the short term is labeled on the following chart .I have resolved the fall from 6338 high in nov 2010 as a complex correction
we have done the W and X part of the complex structure and are in fag end of Y
The internal structure of wxy consists of 3 wave each as can be seen from the above chart
The c of Y can end in the BAND of 4700-4600,And expect good relief from their .


Wednesday, August 24, 2011

>Top 10 debt ridden countries

With American debt becoming the talk of every economist lets look at it what it is in simple words.

Debt definition according to wilipedia
A debt is that which one party, the debtor, owes to a second party, the creditor; usually this refers to assets owed, but the term can also be used metaphorically to cover moral obligations and other interactions not based on economic value.

10 most indebted developed countries
Countries Debt as % of GDP Size of debt ( $ bn)
Japan 234 13,795
Greece 139 434
Italy 120 2,564
Iceland 108 16
Belgium 103 504
Ireland 102 220
USA 99 14,270
Singapore 95 254
France 88 2,365
Portugal 87 202

Source IMF, 2010.

The credit crunch brought this debt issue center stage,
In these financially gloomy times its every country priority to see how they can reduce their national debt .
In the past Americal FED came up with QE1 AND QE2
Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank buys financial assets to inject a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy. This is distinguished from the more usual policy of buying or selling financial assets to keep market interest rates at a specified target value.

whispers are already heard about QE3 Coming ,will that happen or not we will know soon ,
If QE3 comes be ready to see short term liquidity flood in emerging markets whichin turn
should fuel inflation to them.