Monday, July 31, 2006


NIFTY if holds 3135 its very good sign else we are here for some fall rising wedge wat nifty is making can see a target of as deep as 3060-3050 in days to come, so trade accordingly.
Nifty to see some support near 3080 too in downside if it falls.


abban loyd buy with a sl of 980 taget 1080 in few trading sessions stop loss may not be used also if u can hold this stock


ABB intraday touched its resistance of 2528-2535 and thn a fall from there and took support neae 2400 levels long this above 2400 only else can short this below 2400 with a stop at 2400+


worst looks over for the stock long this above 375 can target 390
strong support near 350+ levels

Sunday, July 30, 2006


long this near near 615 can target 635-640 sl below 615.

Saturday, July 29, 2006


ACC Trading in a channel well above its 830 resistance 900 opens for this stock can long this with a sl below 830.


Markets can confound traders. They often run in two directions at once—
up on the weekly charts and down on the dailies. A market can reverse
without sending you an e-mail about its change of plans. A sleepy stock
can get so hot that it burns through stops, while a formerly hot stock
becomes so cold it freezes your capital along with your fingers.
Trading is a complex, nontrivial game. Markets consist of huge crowds
of people, and technical analysis is applied social psychology. We must
select several tools to identify different aspects of market behavior. Before
using any indicator, we must understand how it is constructed and what it
measures. We must test it on historical data and learn how it performs
under different conditions. Once you start testing an indicator, expect to
adjust its settings, turning it into a personal trading tool as reliable and
familiar as an old wrench.

Thursday, July 27, 2006


NIFTY spurting on back of goor results and we r creeping close and close to main level of 3200.I would take profit 3180 onwards having some correction is good to have for healthy upmove well, as long as tht rightmost green trendline is maintained i would trail it downside 3135 is a good support.MACD is still in buy mode generated buy signal at 2987 cheers trade accordingly .

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

nifty 27th july

nifty is on a steep run up that can be seen in the chart it has taken out key resistance levels. 3105 is acting as support for nifty below 3100 3080 is very good support for nifty .On upside 3135 is the place where nifty may stop over.There could be an other view too nifty had flag pole breakout it is shown with thick green lines with a target of 3180.Above 3135 nifty will be quite strong and weak below 3080
tomorrow being expiry day be ready for wild swings


reliance trading over 995 its a good sign on upside it can target 1025-30
which is the base of double top trade accordingly 995 is support below which 975 is a good support

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

nifty 26th july

nifty has broken out of channel upside targets are 3040-3060. 3060 is the neckline for double top expect resistance ther downside nifty support at 3000-3005 can think of longs above 3040 spot also 2 more days for the expiry so be ready to see wild moves don't get into trade with predetermined mind be flexible.


century can be longed with a sl of 350 target 375 sl is must


nifty was moving in a downward channel look for probable breakout in upside direction can keep an sl at 2980 and later can move to 2990.

Monday, July 24, 2006


cipla moving in a slant up channel and break in any direction will give acceleration towards respective direction will be updating on this as and when that happens


SBI probable breakout long with a sl of 735 hourly chart shows ihs too

Sunday, July 23, 2006


SBI moving in a channel expect acceleration in respective direction after the breakout
730-35 is resistance.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

nifty possible hs

nifty looks to make an head and shoulder pattern with neckline on 2930 if broken comfortable can see 2800 in nifty trade accordingly.


1750-55 level is the neckline fot head and shoulder in tcs if broken can see a down side of 90-100 points.
trade accordingly.


520 levels is a stiff resistance falling in a downward channel looks to be on that small channel support expect power by this script only above 520+ levels.

Friday, July 21, 2006


eversince reliance made double top its falling steeply in the shown downword channel
no buying only above 975 else short with a sl of 975 its weak below 975 falling like cards


Thursday, July 20, 2006

nifty 21st july

once double top downside was done nifty bounced almost vertical from 2920+ levels
backed by solid world markets and same was followed by indian markets.Todays rise was too much to neglect it usually a large move like this will not end in a day expect more upside in coming days crossing 3200 will mean change of trend as of now 3000 acts like a big pshycological support crossing 3045 will be good for intraday bulls also we have bounced much aboove 38.2% fib retracement thats also a good sign,trade accordingly a good thing that was seen today was that banks showed much needed support many banks closed with smart gains.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006


nifty had made double top near 3200+ and today we did double top downside target
2900 is a good support also tomorrow being being big daddies result reliance much depends on that.Trend from last few days is such very good results too were not able to hold the markets today ACC came up with fantastic numbers still it fell like cards so sentiments are heavy at the moment crude etc.I still feel long should be taken with care.

Monday, July 17, 2006


The double top made near 3200+ levels has a downside target of approximately 2910-2920
today as we saw,there was no buying pullback that showed the selling pressure , most heavyweights looks oversold so bounceback is not ruled out 2900 shud be a good level to buy some, though its advisable to be quite carefull while buying as today we fell as if we opened to fall traders will enjoy this market well few important levels 3000 is a pshycologicaly big level breaking of that will invite fresh selling.The upmove will be valiadated after we break that slant downmove trendline till then shorting looks more appropriate while trading.

Sunday, July 16, 2006


bombay dyeing looks to have violated the upmove trendline and it looks to target 530 in days to come trade accordingly.

Saturday, July 15, 2006

nifty 17th july

As posted on 15th nifty broke channel on friday and retested it again as it was resistance it has fallen back so upmove only if nifty breaks and gets back into channel upside big resistance is at 3200 levels. downside support are at 3085,3040,3010
next week has many heavyweight coming up with their results reliance being the biggest out of them keep as eye on that as it can single handedly play with nifty.

infosys ihs target reaches

as posted on 2nd july about IHS in infosys the target for that is achived

What's pushing oil prices higher?

The Iraq war has certainly been a factor in the run-up in oil prices, but there are others on the list that are probably more critical. Here’s why:Oil production in Iraq is still below pre-war levels, but it's gradually improving. Just before the U.S. invasion Iraqi production was about 2.6 million barrels per day. Today it's about 1.9 million, about 25 percent lower.But there are other, more pressing, forces pushing oil prices higher. In no particular order, here are some big ones.

Supply cutoff. The recent flare-up of tension following Israel’s attack on Lebanon has increased the risk that other Middle East countries could get drawn into a widening war. Iran has made it clear it is prepared to use oil as a weapon by cutting off exports — just as it did after the Iranian revolution in 1979 overthrew the U.S.-friendly Shah Pahlavi. With Iranian exports of nearly 3 million barrels per day, another suddenly cutoff would almost certainly produce another big price spike.

Growing demand. High oil prices are supposed to cut demand as consumers find ways to do more with less. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when U.S. oil consumption actually fell after a spike in prices spurred conservation and development of more efficient cars and appliances, for example. But this time around global demand, at 85 million barrels a day (roughly a thousand barrels a second), is still climbing.

No spare capacity. Even during the oil shocks of the '70s, there was enough global production capacity to keep up with demand — once OPEC decided to put it on the market. That’s no longer true. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, OPEC producers are pumping as fast as they can. And given the notorious uncertainty about the cartel’s production data, it’s not at all clear that output will grow fast enough to meet demand.

Investment slowdown. Though oil producers are awash in cash, not enough of that money is flowing to regions where there are known oil reserves. Iraq’s oil infrastructure — on a good day — is still some 30 years old and badly in need of an upgrade. Venezuela and Nigeria could also very likely expand production capacity, but political turmoil has discouraged investment in those countries.

Weak dollar. This has an indirect impact, but since oil is priced in dollars, as the value of the dollar falls, the price of oil in dollars goes up. Over the last five years, the dollar has fallen by 33 percent against the euro. If that keeps up, the upward pressure on oil prices will remain.

Weather. The odds are against a repeat of last year’s devastating hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, which knocked out the equivalent 30 percent of Gulf oil production from last September through June. (More than 10 percent is still shut down.) But with memories fresh of what Mother Nature can do, oil traders will remain jittery until the hurricane season is over.

Investor demand. Oil prices also are being stoked by investors in the futures market who have no intention of ever taking delivery of a barrel of crude. The rapid run-up in prices over the past two years has drawn billions of dollars worth of bets that prices will move higher. If the other forces driving prices higher persist, expect investors to continue bidding up futures contracts. The flip side is that with all this extra capital sloshing around the oil markets, a pullback in prices could be amplified as speculators bail out.


this is for warren buffett fans download the latest edition of the ebook
from here


A trader who goes through a losing period should ask, “What is
the lesson I have to learn?” “What do I need to do to change?”
He should never do himself the disservice of looking back at
chart patterns with hindsight and saying “I should have seen

It is not an issue of what he sees or doesn’t see; it is
always an issue of how a trader manages the trade once he is in
it. Trade management is a process of defining an initial risk
level and then trailing a stop from there or placing orders to exit
the position, whether with a profit or a loss. A trader must rely
on his best judgment at the time a trade is put on and managed.
With experience, he can learn to recognize the behavioral patterns
he exhibits when his judgment may not be 100 percent, the
times he is prone to drop his guard and the market demons jump
up and bite him. And then, over time, a trader’s bottom line can
improve as he makes fewer and fewer unforced errors!

Friday, July 14, 2006

NIFTY VIEW 14th july

nifty looks to be in a big channel, starting from 2800 levels we are still moving
in that channel. To still get a closer view lets get close we did 3200+ but were unable to hold that it was channel top that fall from recent top if we see is making a small channel and breaking of this small channel will give us clue for intraday move and breaking of large channel up or down with open up further trades as of now 3200+ is stiff resistance.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006






July 17, 2006 issue - Mukesh Ambani has been India's Mr. Big for a long time. By all accounts, he is the country's most influential private citizen, and the businessman who thinks bigger than the rest in this rising economic superpower. He was all that even before a bitter internal feud led to a split in his family conglomerate. The breakup, finalized in January, left Mukesh in control of the larger (and largely petrochemical) share, Reliance Industries, and that behemoth has seen its fortunes soar ever since. It is now India's largest private-sector enterprise by any measure: revenue ($20 billion in 2005), profit ($2 billion), or share of Indian GDP ( 3.5 percent). Last week its stock closed up 15 percent since January, making Reliance India's biggest company by market cap (about $35 billion). Mukesh, who was already the world's 38th richest person before the split, according to Forbes, is now considerably richer. He says that while most family empires destroy wealth when they divide, the parting of the Ambanis was a "win-win" proposition.

Now, Mr. Big's ambitions are bigger than ever. Since the breakup, Ambani, 49, has finalized plans to invest more than $11 billion over the next decade to build two new satellite cities outside creaking, overcrowded Mumbai and Delhi. He foresees these metropolises emerging within just four years, each with a population of 5 million people making $5,000 a year, on average (or seven times India's norm), and hosting top multinational companies. And that is all pretty simple—a development on steroids—compared with the idea that really gets Ambani going.

Ambani's favorite scheme aims to revolutionize in one swoop two of India's largest but most backward sectors: farming and retail. Despite boom times, India is still a nation where 100 million mostly small farmers work with ox and plow, where 96 percent of retail stores are mom-and-pop shops and most of the roads between farm and store are mud tracks. Ambani plans to invest $5 billion by 2011 to put both the farms and the stores on the road to modernity, connect them through a distribution system guided by the latest logistics technology, and create enough of a surplus to generate $20 billion in agricultural exports annually.

In China, these plans would be hatched by the Communist Party. In India, the government is neither visionary nor efficient enough. But Mukesh Ambani is both. "This new business model excites me the most," said Ambani, wearing a white polyester-blend, safari-style shirt and dark blue slacks, in an exclusive interview in his Mumbai office recently.

Ambani is in many ways the enthusiastic extreme in a booming India, which has seen an explosion of entrepreneurial energy every time it opens a new industry to competition. The Reliance conglomerate got its start as a family textile business in 1966, and has grown in spurts, often triggered when the government released its grip on one sector or another. Mukesh Ambani's new cities were born, for example, from a recent reversal in the attitude of both state and federal governments, which are now willing to give private businessmen control over huge projects. "Can you imagine the change in mind-set?" he says. "The government is ceding its powers."

Reliance has always had a complex relationship with the government. In a sea of family monopolies, it was a genuine start-up. Yet it quickly acquired deep and sometimes murky connections with politicians, who have often helped Reliance along the way. Mukesh retains the extraordinary clout of his late father, Dhirubhai, the company's founder. But many who have dealt with him say he has also created a company that succeeds based on merit, not political good will. In that sense India's complex and controlled reform process has been perfect for market-savvy insiders like Ambani.

Ambani is not the only major Indian entrepreneur who sees India's farmers as an army of opportunity, either. Others are investing heavily in fruit and vegetable exports to Europe, information services for farmers, and consumer credit in the countryside. What unites them is both pursuit of profit, and a perhaps uniquely Indian mission to spread the wealth, which is arguably becoming a business necessity in a democracy whose growing income gap could prove explosive, particularly for the superrich. What distinguishes Ambani is the sweep of his plans, and a track record for making big projects happen. "His genius, his strength, is that he's enormously good at executing large projects," says Nandan Nilekani, the CEO of Infosys, India's huge IT company. "He is able to assemble large numbers of people, the project-management skills, the capital and then execute."

Ambani wants to build a chain of both small and supersize stores across India, creating 1 million jobs and reaching $25 billion in annual sales, all by 2011. If his plan succeeds, he says, consumers will get fresher food at lower prices, rural incomes will soar, farmers will become active consumers, and Reliance will become "a WalMart in India." The agricultural export boom will bring India's farmers into the global economy, as IT has done for its college grads. "We are rebalancing the world," says Ambani. "We are in fact lucky to be at the right place at the right time, contributing to our self-confidence as Indians. That's what energizes me." It's a vision in which everyone wins, which helps explain the silence of any doubters.

They were not so silent earlier. Mukesh Ambani got his start implementing his father's dreams. In 1980 Dhirubhai summoned Mukesh back from his M.B.A. studies at Stanford to begin a risky attempt at "backward integration" of its textile mills. The plan was to move from sewing clothes to creating the fabric, and eventually refining and pumping the oil from which synthetic fabrics are made.

At almost every step, naysayers would dismiss Ambani's plans as too grand for the Indian market. Mukesh first took charge of building a polyester plant at Patalganga, with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons at a time when India's demand was only 6,000 tons, and got it done in just 18 months. After Dhirubhai was hobbled by a stroke in 1986, Mukesh became a more nearly equal partner and was once again manager-in-chief when Reliance built a petrochemical plant to feed the Patalganga complex. "The son learned at his father's feet how to think big," says Vallabh Bhanshali, a Mumbai investment banker.

By 1996, the Ambanis were launching the next step in their grand plan: an oil refinery. Mukesh lived in a shipping container at the arid site in Jamnagar, 850 kilometers northwest of Mumbai on the Gulf of Kutch, while managing a work force of 80,000 and shuttling back to Mumbai in a small plane to consult with his invalid father and answer the critics, who kept asking: "What does Reliance know about refining?"

The Jamnagar project would set the pattern of sharp attention to detail, executed at breakneck speed, for which Ambani is now famous. He and his experts looked at 2,400 configurations for the refinery, sweated over every detail, yet finished in just three years. Jamnagar is now the world's third-largest refinery, and can turn crude into gas for cars or aviation fuel for $2 or $3 less per barrel than its closest Asian rival, a plant in Singapore. "We wanted and got an elephant that could dance to the tune of any market," says Hital Meswani, a long-time family friend who heads the refining operation.

Soon after the plant came online in 2000, India not only stopped importing refined oil products, it started exporting enough to more than pay for its crude-oil imports, becoming a net energy exporter for the first time. While other nations like Angola and Turkmenistan have achieved a similar turnaround, they did it by simply exploiting existing oil reserves—not by creating an industry from nothing, as Ambani did for India.

Soon, Ambani plans to break ground on a $6 billion expansion that will make Jamnagar the world's largest refinery, capable of processing more than 60 million tons of crude oil annually. Meanwhile, he has completed the "backward integration" of Reliance through an oil and gas exploration company that has hit a potentially huge natural gas reserve off the east coast of India, and is now spending $1 billion annually to pursue sites too remote for major oil companies, including three in Iraqi Kurdistan. "Mukesh wants to take risks," says P.M.S. Prasad, president of the search company, Reliance Petroleum.

Dhirubhai did not live to see this moment. He died in 2002, setting off a power struggle between Mukesh and his younger, more flamboyant brother, Anil, 47, that became a tabloid sensation and prompted speculation that Reliance itself might not survive. Mukesh pushed ahead during this period, taking advantage of the deregulation of the telecom sector to launch Reliance Infocomm in 2003, which quickly became the third-largest telecom in India. Mukesh felt a special attachment to Infocomm because it realized another dream of his father's—cutting the price of a phone call down to a penny a minute in India.

A year ago, with Reliance stock faltering, the matriarch of the Ambani clan stepped in to resolve the feud by dividing the conglomerate in two: the majority share ended up in Mukesh's hands, but Anil got Reliance Infocomm as well as Reliance Energy (electric power) and Reliance Capital (finance). "We are not crying about the three sectors we lost," says Anand Jain, Ambani's friend from their grammar-school days and head of Reliance's new cities project. Jain points out that within one month of the settlement Mukesh was rolling out three new projects, including the new cities, the farm-to-retail plan, and a related plan to foment "a second green revolution" in biofuels.

The Indian market is smiling on all of Mukesh's schemes. The three companies under his control have more than $22 billion in annual revenue, but 90 percent of that comes from Reliance Industries, which is entirely in petrochemicals. No doubt high oil prices have helped push up Reliance's stock price in recent months, says Ambarish Baliga, a vice president at Karvy Stock Broking in Mumbai. "But Reliance's strength is Mukesh" and the consensus view is that Reliance Industries will thrive even if oil prices fall because retail is "the main story going forward."

The question that some Indian businessmen ask, in private, is whether Ambani can really translate the model he used to build refineries so successfully to all his new projects. While Reliance touts its new business teams as top-flight, many old family friends remain in the upper ranks.

They are, however, as meticulous as ever. The farm-to-retail team is researching every step of the plan, from vegetable growing to hypermarket versus mom-and-pop retailing. The good news is that the backwardness of Indian farming conceals competitive advantages—for example, India has more arable land than any other country, and spans climate zones ranging from alpine to tropical that can grow any cash crop. The bad news, says Ambani, is that "the whole supply chain is totally disorganized." Because of a lack of storage, refrigeration and transportation, some 40 percent of India's fruit and vegetables spoils before reaching market.

To transform Indian farmers into quality suppliers for his new retail chain, Ambani plans to create 1,600 farm-supply hubs across India, providing technical know-how and credit, selling seeds, fertilizer and fuel, and buying produce. He also plans to build some 85 logistics centers to move food to retail outlets and to ports and airports for export. Reliance is gearing up to train tens of thousands of new employees in the next six to eight months to do everything from erecting prefab warehouses to transporting fresh produce. Even Reliance's admirers note that with little experience in farming or retail, Ambani is taking his biggest risks yet. "There will be mistakes," Ambani admits. "But we are not scared. We will correct our mistakes fast and move on."

In a sense, Ambani's basic bet is on the future of the Indian market and its 1 billion consumers. This is virgin territory, in which the 96 percent share held by 12 million family-run shops is high even compared with China (80 percent) or Thailand (60 percent). That makes it a relatively easy market to conquer. In the past two years Reliance has built 1,250 modern service stations, and already has 15 percent of the retail gas market, with plans to double the number of Reliance stations by December. Mukesh predicts consumer sales will surpass refining as Reliance Industries' main source of revenue within seven years.

Ambani thinks he can beat the likes of Wal-Mart on his home turf based in part on local knowledge: for example, Reliance executives understand that small retailers are a powerful lobby, particularly on the local level, and could easily trip up a giant. So Ambani is moving first to incorporate small stores into his chain, starting with a trial partnership with the Sahakari Bhandar chain of 19 supermarkets in Mumbai. In just two months, Reliance has renovated, computerized and stocked these stores, with dramatic results: average store revenue and customer traffic have tripled. In a second stage, Ambani plans to build new superstores, starting on the outskirts of the 784 Indian towns with populations greater than 50,000 before expanding into the ten largest cities, where property prices and congestion make superstores problematic.

Ambani's farm, retail and energy visions merge at his Life Sciences Center in Mumbai, which is pursuing his "second green revolution." Founded in 2002, its research includes experiments in growing biofuels from the jatropha plant and cellulose on a commercial scale. "If you can crack the cellulose code just like the Da Vinci code, cellulose and jatropha could give us two agro-routes to a world without gasoline," he says. About half of Indian homes have no electricity, and Ambani says big companies have no workable plan to bring it to them (an indirect slap at Anil's Reliance Energy). His answer is to go "wireless." He now has teams setting up experimental biomass generators in remote villages, and envisions a day when thousands of villages have these generators—sold and serviced by Reliance's rural retail network.

It could happen, as many obstacles seem to be melting in Ambani's path. Last year Parliament passed a law creating Special Economic Zones, which grant developers authority to plan new projects with more freedom than even China allows in its own bustling SEZs, on which Ambani's new cities are modeled. Reliance has all but secured 150 square kilometers of largely farm land east of Mumbai, at prices Jain estimates at 1/1000th those in downtown Mumbai. The government holds some equity in the projects, but as a largely "silent" partner, and has already approved Reliance's detailed plans for both new cities, says Ambani. "If you would have asked me five years ago if a project like this was possible I would have said no."

Reliance's first move will be to set up roads, rapid transit, power and water supply, telecom and rail links. In cooperation with the government it plans to build a 20-kilometer bridge across the bay linking old and new Mumbai, and a new seaport. Another private firm is building a new airport nearby. There will be a one-stop licensing agency, jointly run by Reliance and the government, to cut through India's infamous red tape. "Every serious investor in the world is approaching us to get in," boasts Jain, and Reliance has already secured $2 billion. Ambani expects that the cities will each pump $25 billion into the national economy every year. With groundbreaking due to begin later this year, Reliance aims to finish New Mumbai and Delhi by 2010 or sooner. "If anyone can do it Reliance can," says Sanjay Nayar, the CEO of Citigroup in India. After all, the bigger and faster, the better.
© 2006 Newsweek, Inc.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006



Sunday, July 09, 2006

trading and Personal Challenges

Traders who at times experience emotional challenges or frustrations
in their trading careers are by no means alone. These
challenges are part and parcel of the business. Listen to the
body and its body signals – there are always signs the body
will put out when engaging bad habits.
But there are certain steps that can be taken to protect against
each trader’s own personal Achilles heel.

Beware of precisely what the particular problem or challenge
is. For example, maybe a trader has the tendency to give back
three weeks worth of profits in two days.

Sometimes it’s very helpful to identify the conditions that precede
periods when a trader gets “sloppy.” Was he feeling elated
after having hit new equity highs? Or, was he distracted by
events that were occurring outside of trading? A trader has to
learn to acknowledge the sides of his personality that hold him
back in trading, because these traits are never going to
disappear. After all, we are not robots – we are human. But
when he can recognize a pattern of feelings or emotions he
feels before he starts to get into trouble, he is a lot less likely
to take a trade that was not part of his game plan.

Have a trading plan each day. This is insurance against making
marginal, spontaneous trades. It also will protect the trader in that
it forces him to take one day at a time and reminds him that the market
alternates between trending periods and choppy periods. Atrader
that can identify ahead of time the type of period that he is in can
be prepared with the appropriate type of strategy for that day.

Routines and rituals are tools for staying grounded in the present
and can aid in keeping the trader’s behavior consistent with
his trading plan. Everyone needs tools to create structure and
order in an otherwise very abstract game. Record-keeping such
as logging trades, statistics or market indicators, is an excellent
discipline that helps one stay in the present and stay consistent.

Set small goals every day. Such a goal might be to have three
winning days in a row, or to follow a trading plan just for that day.
It might be to make no more than three trades a day and to refrain
from overtrading. Or, it could be to put a half position on every
five-minute bull or bear flag that forms. A trader’s small goals
should reflect his own trading style, needs and weaknesses.

A trader should learn to differentiate between challenging
conditions that are caused by the market environment, versus
unforced errors that he makes himself. He should avoid being
hard on himself if the current environment is flat or his normal
trading style is not suited to current conditions.

A good way to correct behavior is to think at all times about a
desired outcome. Post it next to the trading screen. Read it
every morning. Every time a trader goes to take action, he
should ask if it truly supports his desired goal. If he wants the
outcome badly enough, he will find away to reach it. He should
imagine the winning feeling upon achieving those short-term
goals and replay that feeling over and over in the mind as motivation.
It’s important to be very clear about what his purpose
and goals are in the market each day, not just over the long run.

Traders should consider having a trader friend with whom
they can share their daily account statements. Most traders
will do better when they have to be accountable to an outside
party with regard to their trading performance; they are less
likely to let one large loser get out of hand. If his judgments
are impaired, at least there is someone on the other end who
can draw attention to the fact that the trader is deviating from
his plan or might be in need of a break. A trading buddy is not
there to offer advice on the market or on individual trades. In
fact, if a trader finds himself having to ask for advice or opinions,
it is a sure sign that he should not be in that trade. A
buddy is there to serve as a coach – to offer a pep talk or motivational
boost if needed, or to serve as an outside party topoint out when a
trader is engaged in destructive trading
behavior that is resulting in an extended draw down.
Markets can change quickly. The more unbiased a trader is,
the easier it is to change with the environment. If he starts to
develop a bias that is not warranted by the technicals, but is
instead caused by emotions or poor reasoning, his body signs
and language more often than not will tell him. Most professionals
know when they are in a bad trade and know when
they are making a mistake. The more trades a trader makes
and the more experience he gains, the more he will learn to
recognize his own personal signs that indicate he is indeed in
a bad trade, regardless if it has not hit his stop level yet. Until
a trader is able to gain in this knowledge, it’s yet another
excellent reason for always have a resting stop in the market!
Of equal importance, again, he needs to remember how his body
feels when he is in control and has a winning position on. The
best traders learn to take this one step further and add to a winning
position. GREEN LIGHT GO! Step on the gas! This
concept is as crucial as learning to recognize when a trade does
not feel right.

mind( body) reaction to trading

It is easy for most people to learn how to recognize how their
body feels when in different states. An athlete who is in the
groove may feel keenly aware, yet relaxed overall. On the
other hand, an athlete who is “choking” will be tense, anxious
and rushed. Learning to pay attention to bodily reactions can
help a trader confirm when he is engaged in good behavioral
patterns or transgressing his own rules. He also can learn to
recognize how his body feels when a trade is working out and
how it feels in a losing trade.
Here’s a personal example. When I know a trade is working
according to plan and the market is doing as expected – even
if the trade has not yet kicked in – I find that I feel a level of
confidence where I do not feel compelled to look at the
screen. I do not feel bothered by anything and am relaxed
with a feeling of “knowing” that my position is a good one.
However, if I am in a trade and it does not “feel” right, even
if it has not moved against me, I find myself gazing intently
at the screen, my breathing is a bit more shallow, and I hardly
blink. Five minutes can pass by, and I will still be sitting
in exactly the same position in my chair.
I also am aware of certain patterns in which I engage when I
am starting to get tired or burned out. I know from experience
that I will be more likely to drop my guard at these points, and
so I will do best if I stop trading when I feel this way.
The longer a trader has been trading, the greater his awareness
that higher highs in the equity can still be foiled by
lower lows; this is the one thing to forever be on guard
against. Many winning sports teams have won championships
strictly by playing fabulous defense. However,
with trading the ultimate goal is to do more than just eke out
a living, but instead to truly capitalize on the occasional
gifts the market can offer. So, just as it is important to recognize
how one feels when in a state that can lead to errors
in judgment, it is equally important to identify with a
“Green Light GO” condition. This is when it is time to
pound the table and stay with a strong trend move.
Confirmation of a winning trade comes not just from indicators,
but also from our own bodily state, which will give
the feeling of being in sync.
Ultimately, the traders who make it in this business will be the
ones with the most perseverance. As time goes by, experience
will become a trader’s greatest asset. Each day, a trader gets
more experience as to what the best trades feel like and which
of his own behavioral patterns lead to trouble. Once he learns
the patterns that lead to mistakes, it is easier to make those
mistakes with less frequency. The fewer the unforced errors,
the steadier the equity curve in the long run.

Saturday, July 08, 2006


GREEN ARROWS show trendline support expect a bounce from support else it downmove is quitr furious ril may violate this channel,see the trend and trade

learning about yourself

Both experienced and aspiring traders spend a great deal of time
trying to recognize patterns in the markets – charts and indicators
on multiple time frames, seasonal tendencies around specific
times of the month or year, sentiment and flow of funds data.
Clearly, there are many different ways to skin a cat. By analyzing
patterns, a trader is looking for a compelling reason to initiate
a trade or to exit an existing one. Markets are monitored for
subtle shifts in the basic supply-and-demand equation, and once
an “initial condition” is detected that indicates a spot where
there is a probable edge, the game simply becomes a matter of
setting up an entry trigger, defining initial risk and then learning
how to manage a trade properly in response to the market’s
actions. The trader manages the trade by watching for confirmation
or non-confirmation.
But why is it that it never seems to play out so simply in real
life? After all, it is just a numbers game, and it really doesn’t
take long to learn the basic rules.
Perhaps it is because trading normally is ten percent learning
about the market and 90 percent learning about you.
Unfortunately, if a trader doesn’t know himself, the markets are
a very expensive place to find out. If traders were to spend half
as much time studying their own behavioral patterns as they did
studying the markets, the benefit to the bottom line would be
much greater.

Thursday, July 06, 2006


volumes are on rise if script holds 382-84 it will target 420+


1930-40 is small support for grasim may bounce from there immediate target above that is 2000+.This holds true if it holds support of 1930-40.


570 target this move if broken max 580+ thn some dip.


ntpc forming double top(bearish pattern) book profits in tht if it rises


The tops of rallies mark the areas of the maximum
power of bulls. They would love to lift prices even higher and make more
money, but that’s where they get overpowered by bears. The bottoms of
declines, on the other hand, are the areas of maximum power of bears. They
would love to push prices even lower and profit from short positions, but
they get overpowered by bulls.
Use a computer or a ruler to draw a line, connecting nearby tops. If it
slants up, it shows that bulls are becoming stronger, which is a good
thing to know if you plan to trade from the long side. If that line slants
down, it shows that bulls are becoming weaker, and buying is not such a
good idea.
Trendlines applied to market bottoms help visualize changes in the
power of bears. When a line connecting two nearby bottoms slants down,
it shows that bears are growing stronger, and short selling is a good
option. If that line slants up, however, it shows that bears are becoming
When the lines connecting the tops and the lines connecting the bottoms
are close to horizontal, the market is locked in a trading range. We can either
wait for a breakout or trade short-term swings within that range.
courtesy:-come into my trading room

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

larson & tubro

long above 2185 support resistance is shown by green lines


ITC can be longed above 180,else stock looks weak below that breaking trendline will create further problems.long it above 180 only.


sbi may would have broken its downward channel upward, though volumes r quite low risky traders can take position others can wait for a clear signal of channel break


acc trading consistently above 777 will target 820+

Monday, July 03, 2006


vsnl trading above 401+ consistently will target 430+

IHS(inverse head&shoulder) RAINING

its like raining ihs many heavy weights trying to make ihs but here sentiments are the key if they are fine then we are through,because if sentiments are bad best of the patterns are bound to fail so just keep an eye on them which ever responds positively jump on that and ride the tide till it lasts.