Friday, March 30, 2012

>Nifty Analysis April

Nifty hits the first resistance area of 5650 and remained below that.
According to the wave structure we are probably in B leg .A finished near 5630
We are witnessing a messy fall from 5630 .I have resolved it as a triple zigzag

The above chart shows triple zigzag .Ideally if nifty fails to go above 5400
we should witness 4900-4850 levels in Z leg.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

>Nifty elliotwave analysis feb 27th

As for the previous post had expected nifty to stop near 5650 or keep going up.
It has stopped near 5650 and profit booking emerged .Read old post (NIFTY)
Now on the downside 5370-50 is a good support band if this is saved nifty can attempt
rise towards 5550 and well may end up making a lower top by this weekend.
lets see how waves unfold by this weekendthe picture would get lot clearer.Many midcaps which had spiked violently are cooling off ,Its prudent to wait till
nifty shows upside strength .


Thursday, February 16, 2012

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

We witnessed a maddening rally in nifty which even overshot my estimates.
I had 5250 in my mind (NIFTY )when i had posted my wave counts.
Well now since we have overshot those levels and even the slanting down channel
has broken up ,I assume WXYXZ was done near 4531.What we are witnessing now is a
new wave.
The upmove from 4531 is corrective in nature i cannot lable it as a impulse atleast
i am not able to,Would reckon we are making a bigger X or B ,Which can top between
5650-5951 and then we again start a multimonth downmove to a new low below 4531.
The above chart shows my view this is count is still in its earlier stages ,Would refind it
as we reach for apex or i get more confirmation.The X or B wave structure is debatable
need more time and wave structure to justify it can directly go to 5650-5950 or can go after
a dip we will know that in coming days.So till next post keep fingers crossed we are entering
a important phase .

Monday, January 23, 2012

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

Nifty is still buzzing according to the counts posted earlier
can go through the earlier post here nifty.
I have an alternate count for the structure unfolding
we have to see which one works out ,This new count would
just make the C up target little more .The alternate count says the X wave is still on and its forming an bear market
expanded flat read about expandedflat .For this to be a expanded flat we
need 5 up in C .Let the wave unfold and we will know the respective targets.
Elliott wave gives sleek edge in forecast market move but I have
learned with experience we have to wait patiently to see the pattern evolving from
the random price move.
The above chart shows the internal structure of the would be expanded flat.
According to the earlier count we have almost hit first target of 5100.Exciting time
ahead for traders.Also i would take liberty to say i don't think market has made
the bottom.This rise was seen as i had posted the chart by last week of December 2011
so its not a surprise .Well who knows i could be wrong :)


Monday, January 16, 2012

>Nifty wave analysis

In my last few posts,I stressed on the rise coming in ,We are witnessing the rise
Though its not that fast in nifty but midcaps and small caps are gaining ground
and have gained handsomely .
Coming back to nifty we had ending diagonal count which almost looks like getting
negated now, With nifty breaching past the slanting trendline. The kind of rises
we saw in midcaps nifty should have done better than this but reliance and infy
made sure nifty remains subdued .Its moving in a parallel up channel and been
holding up smartly ,Need to see the move of next few days to figure out about
the parallel up channel labeling the speed of the move would help me decide
on the count ,As of now trail longs with stoplosses are previous swing low .

Monday, January 09, 2012

>Nifty view

Nifty has turned volatile and range bound in a range and its not easy
to squeeze in a trade its good to sit out till a range break emerges.
Ending diagonal view holds true if we test 4850-88 and reverse back violently
Sectors are not moving in unison so its better to give time to nifty .
The view of the big abc would be activated if 4888 is taken out .
Two counts had posted earlier were
Nifty1 is big abc view
Nifty 2 is ending diagonal view

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

>Indian stock market outlook for year 2012

Year 2011 was a troublesome year as far as equity market is concerned.
2011 saw nifty correcting 25% from a high of 6181 to a low of 4531.
Year 2011 was not a trending market it unfolded in complex waves
which rises or reverses without giving much confirmation or clues.
We witnessed steep falls followed by steep rises ,With rises competing
with falls in speed.
Year 2011 saw nifty unfolding in WXYXZ with Z entering in year 2012
which is the last leg of this complex 5 waves.Here the classic similarity
between alternate X wave retraced previous complex wave by 60% and
above which shows us how tedious was it for a short term trader to trade.
The above chart shows the respective waves.

Year 2012 is expected to be trending market
as compared to year 2011 we should witness good rally after we finish Z which should
see many value and badly beaten midcap stocks to rise back considerably ,Would be
concentrating on infra segment ,Indian story depends lot on this sector.To sum up
wxyxz should finish a A of larger degree should see a big B unfolding after that,
Would elaborate more on this as the wave starts to unfold,Overall this year should
give good trading opportunity to a shrewd trader.