Why nifty not falling?

Of late social media is discussing overtime why nifty not falling.

Ofcouse chartist would say still resistance not reached ,Though a

fundamental guy would day PE is above 28 still market holding.

lets look at the following detail.

From above table we can see top 10 nifty stocks on weighted average .Reliance is almost 10% and this single super heavyweight has risen by 29% in last two month till today .Only 2 stocks in top 10 are giving negative return in last 2 months .These top 10 stocks hold 51.16% .So nifty is so dependent on these as far as up down move is concerned .So keep as eye on the biggest mover Reliance for hints.

>Nifty Elliottwave Analysis

Hi Readers,

                   A post after a very long gap,I would try to post inbetween .

The nifty has been correcting for almost a year now,At first there was an impression of this matching 

2011-2012 correction ,But slowly its showing its colours.

A chart has been attached to show the wave counts.

I think we are making an expandedflat in this x wave.We usually get a slow correction which goes beyond a year when diffrent sectors are not in sync.

The chart is self explanatory ,Expecting a rally towards those blue levels to finish off x wave 

A breach of 7500 would make me think we have made a bigger bottom else we are into downward channel only.

Nifty correcting towards support

Hi friends,

                   Nifty after few days sideways move went below the sideways ranfe on friday

it tested 7550 and closed below that ,Lets see the present structure of nifty.

Let me put the latest chart.

Looking at the chart we can see

a=c ie 7550 range has been broken 

so idealy nifty would target 7500 

level now ,ie c=1.6(a) which coincides

with gap filling also ,It would be early

to say if correction would be over

at 7500 or it would stretch we would

see how nifty reacts there.

Regards

Rish                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Nifty 12th june

Hi friends,

                  Nifty scaled new high 7700 and retraced fast ,Lets see the structure of the fall

Let me put the latest chart in a lower timeframe.

From the chart we can see 

a small abc followed by a x

wave and x wave is now followed

by another abc.

The c wave targets are given by yellow dotted lines it can reverse from any

of those levels 7560-7550

remains a strong support.

Regards

Rish

Nifty 11th june

Hi friends,

                 Nifty inched up after completing abc correction

which was first looked like a triangle ,And is still rising ,Though intraday corrections have started 

to look steep and the buy back after that was not that fast ,First sign of exhaustion.

From the chart we can see

7550-7560 is the first support

till thats held i don't see

a big dent in nifty.Keep that

as stoploss for your profits.

Regards

Rish

Nify Squeeze

Hi friends,

                 Nifty continued to squeeze ,It broke from the contacting squeeze yesterday

and is trending up,Above 7504 it would be confirmed triangle has been broken out.

Lets see the full picture.

From the chart it can be seen

the red lines of triangle

has been taken out and has 

closed above that.Now as 

long as it holds above that nifty 

first target comes at 7503 and above

that nifty can target alltime high above

previous high which it made on election

result day.

The green dotted slanting trendline is the support line till that is not voilated nifty uptrend

would continue.

Regards

Rish 

Nifty wave counts 28th may

Hi friends,

                Nifty continue to move above 7200 keeping both counts alive :).

with expiry approaching fast a decisive move is on for sure .

Lets see the chart structure.

A squeeze kinf od structure is forming

near 7300 levels ,Lets see if nifty continues to be in the same range or

tries to break that range.Once the range breaks i would post the further

structure because as of now 2 counts 

are active once it confirms 1 count i would go further with the same count

and post its further move so keep eye on 7200 as long as that holds Nifty looks fine ,

Below 7200 we get new lower levels.

Regards

Rish 

Nifty wave counts 27th may

Hi friends,

                  In my last post Nifty i mentioned about B up and a rise coming towards 7350+

Looks like the c wave stretched and we hit 7500+ and fell brutally in a fast move.

Lets look at the chart.

This count says we 

finished B at 7500+ and

have started C down for 

a target of 7070.

This count is bearish and nifty 

can target 7070 if a=c and can

stretch if it goes below that.

Another count i have in mind if we hold 7200 which would be bullish abcde count

as shown in picture below.

This count suggests of we hold

7200 we can have this move 

coming up.Lets see how

nifty moves today

this being expiry week 

move can be volatile 

keep an eye on levels

to see what move 

emerges.

Regards

Rish 

Nifty wave counts 22nd may

Hi friends,

                 Nifty continues its move in a small range ,In my last nifty post

had shown the given options available.

Nifty did breach 7350 on 20th though it was opening spike,Lets see the 

present picture.

From the chart we can see 

since 7350 was breached in initial

trades on 20th ,The impulse down

thing looks unlikely,Once nifty

sustains above slanting trend line

we can see c wave rally of c wave

of bigger B wave ,Below 7206

the c wave rally may not come 

today would be a decider,As 

we have been sideways for

sometime after election spike.

Lets see how nifty moves in next few days.

Regards

Rish 

Nifty settling after election jump

Hi friends,

                As usual election day saw wild swing ,Trader on the right side

would have made good money ,Wrong side would have got wiped as the volatility

was huge,Well now vix has melted so volatility should get normal now.

Lets see the wave structure of the fall from 7563.

From the chart we can see

a nice trending move in 123

now till 7350 is held we can

take this fall as a impulse 

which suggests below 7170

we should head towards 7000

even if this is abc (W)at the low

we made on election day and 

this is a new wave up till 7350

is not crossed we can confidently 

say a fall towards7000 should come.Lets see how nifty behaves over next few days

Regards

Rish 

Nifty Election squeeze

Hi friends,

                   Well the event has arived lot of hype build in Expectations are high

BJP led NDA is expected to get majority according to exit polls .

We saw expectation rally already from 6650 to 7200.Lets see the present 

chart structure.

Now tomorrow election results

Nifty moves depend on what kind

of numbers NDA gets this expectation

is build on clear majority to them,Any

surprize or shock can spin the market 

big ,From the chart we can see a nice

squeeze building up for last 2 days 

which suggests market waiting for

a trigger ie election result ,Technically

the move below 7070 would invite

gap filling and nifty can drift down to atleast 7015-7000.We have usually seen market running bothways

as the counting starts like during budget day ,So be safe and trade lite you can always trade heavy on 

any other day enjoy the move and jump in only when you understand the move .

Regards

Rish 

How to trade Nifty after exit polls

Hi friends,

                 In my old post i mentioned about nifty resting or consolidating

after steep run,My expectation for a bottom was around 6600 levels nifty 

reversed from little above that.

Lets see the present picture.

From the picture ,It can be seen

i have marked 2 counts yellow

and green .

The green one is quite bullish count

which suggests extension and we 

are in 3rd of 3,This count portrays

a very bullish picture in coming months.

The Yellow count is abcde and right now e is on,Some observations from 

this count c=1.61a(almost) and right 

now even e is exactly equal to a ,Interesting indeed ,The point is nifty is right now hovering in an important

area 50-100 points here and there is ok but if we don't cross this range of (7000-7200) we should be in for

a consolidation which can turn into a good steep profit booking below 6700.In a bull case 6700 would be held that,s where the big support lies for the recent rally.

Track these levels closely and we see where nifty heads post 16th!!.

Regards

Rish 

Nifty starts c wave

Hi friends,
                   I had posted about nifty structure yesterday .
Nidty did a time consuming sideways uppish b wave and today
started c wave down lets see the chart.

By going below a low
its confirmed that c down
has started and logical
target comes near 6600-6580.
I expect slow drop the way
it has happened over last
5 days.Lets see how nifty does
this c wave .




Overall nothing big has happened yet nifty after rally is consolidating looking
for clues from elections.
Regards
Rish

Nifty wave structure

Hi friends,
                   Nifty continues to slide down slowly ,Few stocks continued there correction
and few maintained their rise result nifty showed very little move and almost remained
sideways,I expect the
yellow line move in coming days
either nifty can remain sideways
or should move in yellow line
structure.Overall the time consuming sideways structure suggests everyone is confused
about election or are scared to
take positions today even volumes were low ,We are in for exciting move in some time.

Be attentive and track IT stocks closely.

Regards
Rish

Nifty wave structure 29th april

Hi friends ,
                   Nifty continued with its slow drop.
I expect a bounce back today from lows  preferably 6750-6730
Waves suggest a wave is coming to end ,Let me put the chart.

Lets see how nifty reacts
to supports ,Overall i am of
the view ,Nifty is trying
abc correction and it should
finish a today so we should
see bounce back today .
Above 6820 ,I would be thinking
about alternate scenario.





Regards
Rish

Nifty Tests resistance

Hi friends,
                  Had posted in my last on nifty about resistance zone 6850-80
Nifty made a high at 6861 and reversed.
Lets see the nifty chart.

We can see from the chart
a expanding triangle like
shape had formed and it reversed from trendline resistance.
According to wave theory
a break below 6700 would
confirm c is finished and d
wave has started.
Track closely nifty if 6700
gives up c we can target 6600-


6580 ie d wave .This is short term top only according to me,Dips would be good to buy
stocks and quality midcap for sudden spurts.
Lets see how nifty performs in coming sessions.

Regards
Rish

Nifty wave analysis

Hi friends,
                    In my last post nifty breaks 6700 ,I expected a retest of 6600 once 6700 was broken
But it reversed from 6665 and went on to make a new high again.
I have adjusted the count a bit to accommodate this rise from 6665.
Lets see the chart.

the chart is self explanatory
the yellow abc in which c
got truncated and after that
truncation we saw a big rally
which usually happens after
a truncation.The rally is
resolved into 12345 where
the 5th is going on accoding
to parallel channel the resistance
comes near 6850-80 levels


I was able to zero in on this count because midcap indices this was seen clearly but in Nifty it
was not clear ,Lets see how nifty performs tomorrow

Nifty breaks 6700

Hi friends,
                   In my last post had mentioned about the trendline support at 6700.
Nifty has breached 6700 eventually .
Lets see the latest structure of nifty move.

From the top the structure
looks corrective ,We did abc
and did a small triangle x
and again finished a small
impulse a .Now since 6700
is breached nifty looks set
to test 6600,On the upside
6730 would be the resistance
to watch out ,For tomorrow
a revound is expected as we
finished a small impulse down

At todays low ,So a pull back is expected to test resistance towards 6700-6730.
Lets see how nifty moves .
Regards
Rish

Nifty near 6700

Hi friends,
                   In my last post i had mentioned about a impulse seen in nifty

Had mentioned about profit booking range and nifty resisted to 6800-6830
range .
Lets see the present structure of nifty.

Nifty resting on channel
support ant fall below 6700
would invite more profit
booking.Below 6700 the
neat logical support comes
at 6600,Today midcaps
saw nice cut many midcaps
were 5-6% down .
Had mentioned about
vix breakout sometime


Back Vix breakout 
Vix has done 30+ already ,Peculiar thing nifty rose with vix for some time.
Lets see if volatility increases with vix being so high.

Regards
Rish 

Nifty Shows impulse

Hi friends,
                   Nifty after a small consolidated correction again resumed
uptrend.
Lets see the present structure.

The impulse is visible
clearly from parallel
channel we get resistance
in range 6800-6830
above that 6860-6890.
This is profit booking range
for nifty ,Concentrate on
getting good level to book
rather than catching new
trades.


Lets see how nifty moves .

Regards
Rish