Friday, December 29, 2006


the market lot for the additional 26 securities, available for trading in F & O segment with effect from December 29, 2006, will be as follows


Thursday, December 28, 2006

Why ‘buy’ outnumbers ‘sell’

MUMBAI: “These analysts are a bunch of crooks and the worst type of crook is a crook that wears a suit and is interviewed on CNBC” says Mitch Zacks, in his book, Ahead of the Market. Having made that statement, the author explains in detail why he thinks the way he thinks.

Equity analysts working for stock brokerage firms are supposed to write research reports, which tell the customers of the brokerage firm which stocks to buy and sell. These reports usually carry a recommendation at the start, like buy, hold or sell. A buy recommendations means that as per the analyst’s view, investors should buy this particular stock. A sell recommendation means exactly the opposite i.e., the investors should sell the stock. A hold recommendation means the investors should neither buy nor sell the stocks they have already accumulated.

The recommendation is the most widely used piece of information in an analyst report. As Zacks points out “Not surprisingly, the recommendation is probably the most widely used piece of information contained in the analysts’ research report, simply because it is, at face value, easy to understand and appears to be straight forward.”
In the Indian context, as markets have soared, in the last few years, the number of buy recommendations have gone up. The question that springs up here is “Why do analysts at any point of time issue more buy recommendations than sell recommendations?”

There are multiple reasons for the same. The research reports that analysts write are distributed by the brokerage firm to institutional investors like mutual funds, insurance companies, foreign institutional investors and individual investors with the brokerage firm.

And any analyst worth his salt is bothered usually about the institutional investors and not individual investors. This is because the level of respect of an analyst commands among institutional investors essentially decides the amount of money he makes.

Further, analysts do not want to upset the institutional investors by issuing a sell recommendation. This is because a sell recommendation spreads like wild fire, with everybody wanting to sell out. This can lead to the value of investments of institutional investors dramatically falling. Hence, analysts put a stock on a hold recommendation, giving enough time to the institutional investors to get out and after that they may or may not issue a sell recommendation.

Institutional investors carry out their trades through a brokerage firm. This helps the brokerage firm earn money. As Zacks points out “A prestigious or prescient analyst would work hard to develop a following among portfolio managers and, in return, the portfolio managers would execute their trades at the brokerage firm where the analyst worked. The more respected the analyst, the more the analyst could make for the firm where he worked, and more money the analyst would be paid in bonuses.”
A sell recommendation does not go down well with the company on which it has been issued. The company can limit the access of the analyst issuing a sell recommendation to them. This can put the analyst at a huge informational disadvantage vis-a-vis other analysts in the market.

As Zacks points out “Hell hath no fury like a CEO who has lost several million dollars due to some smart-aleck analyst. You can bet that for the next several years - and perhaps for as long as that CEO is in power — that the aggrieved company is not going to do any business where the pessimistic analyst works (and it’s also possible that the analyst will fired). While most investors may forget about the sell recommendation in a couple of months, corporate management tends to have a much longer memory.
When you lose several million dollars worth of stock options — as the CEO of a downgraded firm will attest — you tend to take it very personally.”

The brokerage does not make money by writing reports. They make money by selling shares. As Zacks points out “A buy recommendation has more value to a brokerage firm because it gets the brokers on the phone selling stocks to new clients and opening new accounts.” Given this, it makes more sense to issue buy recommendations.

Brokers tend to use latest analyst recommendations to get investors to change their holdings i.e., sell the stocks they are holding and buy into new stocks. But this may not always be in the best interest of the investor.

As Zacks writes “One of the biggest and most correctible mistakes you can make using analyst recommendations is to allow the recommendations as a means by which brokers can sell you a stock. You may not fully realise that the more you trade, the more money your brokerage firm makes, and that your brokers personally pocket between 25-50% of the fees that you generate for the brokerage firm.”


INFOSYS again targeting its resistance range as was shown in previous post INFOSYS 17TH DEC 2300+ range is resisting above this we get new upmove looking at the momentum in stock it looks like we can break this resistance range

Wednesday, December 27, 2006


REIAGRO looks to be trading in an 4th wave triangle can be traded once breaks triangle upward 170-172 region good support can expect first target of 198-200 once breaks up.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006


polaris has cut the triangle upward can target 175-180 in few days


ultratech looks to be in 4th wave triangle though a small one can be longed with sl near 1000 for first target of 1100

note:- check market direction before entering the trade

Sunday, December 24, 2006


Property prices sky rocketing Noida plot gone for record price Bangalore property prices almost doubled in last 6-8 months dudh walla ,farmer became overnight millionaire due to surge in property prices dozen new companies got listed in market to ride the infrastructure boom and many new are in waiting to get listed its all cacophony out there,is it a bubble.

Government talks of so called infrastructure but where are the basic needs water power roads even big metros are facing water and power shortage and lesser i say about the condition of roads the better. GOLDMAN SACH predicted INDIA will be one of driving force of world economy in coming years
BRICS provided government takes right steps towards flourishing the economy .

There are places in India where people die because of excessive water (flood) ,also places where people die because of no water (drought). What are the steps taken by government to solve this the interlinking of north rivers with south rivers is almost shelved .We need solid foundation if we have to compete with economies like china which has almost left us behind in every field.

Coming back to reality companies there is every possibility that big companies will either eat small players or shunt them out of the market all cannot be unitech which saw orchestral humongous rise in its stock prices.Are reality bells already ringing!!!!!!!

REALITY Alarm bells !!!!!!!!!!!

An obvious fallout from the property boom in the last two years has been a phenomenal mushrooming of new real estate developers. And now with the subsequent correction in prices along with the sheen wearing off from tier II cities, alarm bells are ringing at the signs of an impending shakeout.
The proliferation can be gauged from the fact that more than 4,000 to 4,500 small and medium developers have mushroomed in the last 24 months. In 2004, there were an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 developers across the country but the realty boom has taken the figure to more than 6,000 developers. In fact, entrepreneurs from diverse industries and backgrounds, both big and small have now got on the realty bandwagon.

However, now many in the industry feel the reason for correction in real estate prices is also due to problems that have enveloped some of these projects. Some new developers in many active markets have launched projects without taking required approvals from the state governments. Also, being new in the real estate sector, many developers have overbooked in certain pockets, which has resulted in prices crashing down and in many cases investors haven’t even got back the initial booking amount.

Says Sanjay Verma, executive MD, Cushman & Wakefield: ”The fast paced growth of the real estate industry is also giving rise to a large number of small and medium new developers. It’s natural that with the number of new projects growing, the development companies operating in the sector will increase. And given the scale of expansion this industry is bound to experience, it’s becoming increasingly critical and challenging for consumers to evaluate various options and understand various risk factors related to the developer and the project.

“Given the lack of background and track record information disclosure and established corporate governance for new small and medium players, this scenario further enforces the demand for creation of a federal regulatory body specifically for the real estate industry. In the long run, it will lead to consolidation in the industry.” Concern is mounting among both consumers as well as larger players over the sustainability of smaller new players who don’t have the requisite expertise. While in some cases investors may be stuck with dud projects, there are concerns over the negative rub off on the whole sector as a whole. Says Sanjay Chandra, MD, Unitech Group: ”People who don’t know what it takes to deliver a product and don’t have a organisation history and experience have entered the real estate sector in the last two years. In future these developers will find it tough to deliver a project and the end consumer will be the worst hit. A state regulator will help to track down all the black sheep which has entered real estate business in the last couple of years.”

Interestingly, these new developers were using the pre-launch route to announce their projects but now many state governments have banned the pre-launch schemes. They have also issued notices to several developers to return the money deposited by investors. Additionally, some of them have been castigated for not even having projects cleared from the governments and inviting bookings from consumers.

Tier III cities like Bhiwadi, Palwal, Rudrapur, Bhatinda and Dera Bassi, which have been the focus of some of this proliferation, have seen prices come down by 20 to 25% in the last two quarters and speculative activity has also come down in several pockets.

Says the promoter of a top real estate group, “It is all related to growth and in this kind of boom, one does see these kind of operators in the market. Frankly, you cannot stop them from entering the market and slowly you will see them fizzling out. Though both the industry and the consumers will be victims, this is the how the market functions.”
source :- economic times

Thursday, December 21, 2006

ICICI Raises Record $1 Billion in Yen to Fund Lending

ICICI Bank Ltd., India's largest by market value, raised $1 billion by borrowing in yen, the biggest syndicated loan by a bank from the South Asian nation, to meet credit demand.

The loan will be split into three portions of $350 million, $450 million and $200 million maturing in one year to three years, the Mumbai-based bank said in an e-mailed statement today. The loan agreement was signed yesterday in Geneva.

ICICI and other banks in India are raising money to fund lending as the $775 billion economy expands at an annual pace of 8 percent, spurring companies and consumers to borrow more. At ICICI, loans surged 47 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30.

``We may use a part of the loan for domestic purposes in retail, corporate and rural lending and for corporate lending in our international operations,'' Chanda Kochhar, deputy managing director, ICICI Bank, said from Geneva. ``The $1 billion loan syndication is a benchmark deal as this facility marks the largest syndicated loan for an Indian bank borrower.''

Twenty-six banks participated in the facility, the largest number for loan syndication by any Indian bank in the international market, ICICI Bank said. They included BNP Paribas SA, Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Standard Chartered Plc, HSBC Holdings Plc, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Interest Rates

ICICI Bank will raise the funds in yen to save on withholding tax because of lower Japanese interest rates, and swap the proceeds into rupee, bankers involved in the deal said last month. The three-month yen London Interbank offered rate, or Libor, is 0.5456 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The comparable U.S. dollar rate is 5.36 percent.

The bank got ``very competitive'' rates, Kochhar said, declining to specify the loan rate.

Indian companies are also tapping overseas markets to access larger amounts, said Bhaskar Desai, treasurer at Bank of Nova Scotia in Mumbai.

``The risk appetite of overseas investors is good, helping local companies borrow more from overseas,'' Desai said.

ICICI's joint managing director, Kalpana Morparia, said in October that rising consumer loans, increasing investment by Indian corporations and overseas acquisitions, combined with the government's push to expand credit in rural India, will sustain growth in the world's fastest-growing major economy after China.

Chief Executive Officer K.V. Kamath predicted the funds needed by local companies will more than double to $175 billion in three years.

Economic Growth

The Indian economy may expand ``close to 9 percent'' in the year to March 31, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said today. The economy is poised to expand more than 8 percent for a fourth straight year. The government aims to lift economic growth to as much as 10 percent to eliminate poverty in a nation of 1.1 billion people.

The bank raised $400 million selling five-year bonds in October, receiving demand for $1 billion from investors.

ICICI Bank shares, up 73 percent in the past six months, fell 0.5 percent to 854.55 rupees at the 3:30 p.m. close of trading on the Bombay Stock Exchange.


FRIENDS why is that we usually miss these humongous mad moves this stock doubled in flat 6 days from a low of 24 from where this vertical journey started and is still no looking back.



FOURSOFT probably trading in 5th wave minimum target 77 sl can be kept for intraday players as 66 else a good delivery bet.


Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Sasken Multimedia to power WNC's phones

Bangalore-based Sasken Communication Technologies Ltd on Wednesday said it would provide its multimedia subsystem solutions to Wistron NeWeb Corporation (WNC) for use in WNCs next generation dual-mode (GSM+WiFi) phones.
"WNC, a leading Taiwanese original device manufacturer, will utilise the TI OMAPTM processor platform and Monta Vista Linus operating system for a series of feature-rich dual-mode phones due for release in early 2007," a Sasken release said.
Sasken's multimedia subsystem solution would provide WNC with a single source solution for its next generation phones, it said.
It would also provide integration support to WNC for the subsystem, it added.

nifty intraday

nifty rose from bottom with two IHS shown with green and red arrows

26 securities added in F&O from Dec 29

With reference to circulars no NSE/F&O/0014/2001 dated June 29, 2001, NSE/F&O/00272001 dated November 07, 2001, SEBI circular SMDRP/DNPD/CIR -26/2004/07/16 dated July 16, 2004, and approval received from SEBI, members are hereby notified that the following additional securities will be available for trading in F&O segment with effect from December 29, 2006 :

  • Sr no.
  • Security Name
  • Symbol
  • 1
  • ABAN
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • BEML
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • GDL
  • 10
  • GTL
  • 11
  • 12
  • HCC
  • 13
  • HTMT
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16
  • 17
  • 18
  • 19
  • 20
  • 21
  • 22
  • 23
  • 24
  • TTML
  • 25
  • 26
The National Stock Exchange today notified that the above additional securities will be available for trading in F&O segment with effect from December 29, 2006 :

1,100 cos hit 52-wk lows during bull run

Skeptics of the stock market rally never tire of pointing out that only a handful of shares have participated in the recovery between June till now.

In the past 100 trading sessions, even as benchmark equity indices continued to soar, 1,100 companies listed on the BSE hit 52-week lows. But, supporters of the bull run argue there is a strong reason for the market to have ignored these companies. A majority, if not all, of these companies have seen their earnings decline over the past one year.

For the purpose of analysis, recent listings and companies whose comparative net profit figures were unavailable were excluded, leaving a total of 946 companies. These firms were categorised in the different groups and their group-wise four-quarter trailing net profit from September 2005 to September 2006 was analysed.

The hardest hit has been companies in the B2 Group comprising 420 companies, followed by B1 with 172 and S Group having 149 firms. At the same time, these B2 group companies posted a combined 24% decline in net profit over the past four quarters. This included 50 companies whose bottomlines slipped into the red during this period.

The combined net profit of the 946 companies has shown an increase of 23%, but that is mainly because high profits by a handful of them. In the A group, the combined net profit has risen by 28% from Rs 4,805 crore to Rs 6,157 crore. Here again, the increase is due to companies like National Aluminium, Canara Bank and Dena Bank, which together comprised about Rs 1,750 crore of increase in profit.

Similarly, the combined 25% rise in net profits in the B1 group was mainly because of companies like EID Parry and UB Holdings that together posted a net profit of over Rs 500 crore. In the Z group, the increase of 140% is due to the effect of one or two companies.

Harendra Kumar, head-research, ICICIDirect, says, “When a company hits a 52-week low, there is something fundamentally wrong with it. Just because the rally is happening, it does not mean that all companies in the industry are performing accordingly. There are large numbers of them unable to catch up with the growth witnessed by the industry. Their stock prices could have tumbled down due to various reasons like rising operational costs, increasing input costs and margin pressures, lacklustre sales growth and lack of entrepreneurial skill sets et al. It is the big companies that benefit first when the growth in the economy takes place.”

He says some of these stocks also provide an opportunity as investment candidates. This cannot be interpreted as a buy signal, but there are many stocks that represent value and investing opportunity for those who complain that they have missed the bus.

“There has been a sharp increase in the profitability of large companies like information technology, financial and financial services like banking that witnessed a four-month rally, beginning late July on the back of falling bond yields, lower loan losses and investment provisions, as seen in the September quarter profits. Many small industries have not been able to catch up with the productivity factor and that is reflecting the stock prices of these companies,” says another analyst.

ITC to Tap `New Areas' in Consumer Products

ITC Ltd., India's biggest tobacco maker and second-largest hotel operator, plans to tap ``new areas'' in consumer products to cut dependence on its tobacco business, which faces high taxes and advertisement curbs.

The Kolkata-based company plans to sell ``fast-moving consumer goods,'' Chairman Y.C. Deveshwar told reporters in New Delhi today, without specifying the products or by when it plans to start selling the new products.

ITC, set up in 1910, has in the past six years added businesses such as food, matches, apparel, deodorants, greeting cards and rural retail stores to reduce its reliance on tobacco, which contributes to about half of sales. Analysts such as Abhijeet Kundu expect ITC to start selling soaps and detergents, putting it in direct competition with the local units of Unilever and Procter & Gamble Co.

``It may turn out to be a good move in the long term but may delay the projected breakeven of its non-tobacco business because of higher advertisement spending,'' said Kundu, an analyst with Prabhudas Lilladher Securities in Mumbai, who has a ``buy'' rating on ITC stock. ``The introduction of soaps and detergents may hurt Hindustan Lever in the long term.''

Stock Performance

Shares of ITC fell 5.8 rupees, or 3.3 percent, to 168.35 rupees at the close on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index declined 2.5 percent today.

ITC, 32 percent owned by British American Tobacco Plc, is aiming to exploit the access it has to shops in the nation's 4,378 towns and 638,000 villages to sell products ranging from food to match boxes.

``It is our objective to strive to gain a position of leadership not only in areas we have already entered but newer areas,'' Deveshwar said. ``Our people are hard at work. Our product development, our research and development activity is working round the clock.''

In July 2005, ITC started selling perfumes and deodorants.

ITC plans to set up fresh-food stores in 54 locations in the country over the next three years, Deveshwar said. ITC opened its first fresh-food store, called Choupal Fresh, in August in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad.

The company has set up a network of 6,400 Internet kiosks called e-Choupals and 11 supermarkets called Choupal Sagars. The e-Choupals give farmers access to a company Web site where they can see prices of agricultural produce, browse for new seeds or equipment and check the weather.

The Choupal Sagars buy farm produce and offer a range of services such as soil testing and advice to farmers on new farming practices, buying produce from cultivators and selling them a range of products such as toothpastes and mobile phones.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Cabinet approves sugar exports against licence

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India, expecting a bumper sugar output in the new season that began in October, on Monday permitted sugar exports by those who had imported raw sugar with an obligation to re-export it within a specified time period.

"The cabinet reviewed the issue of export of sugar and took a decision that those having limited advance licence obligation be permitted to export sugar," cabinet spokesman P.R. Dasmunshi told reporters.

"The cabinet would further review the decision shortly."

He did not say when the decision would take effect.

The government had allowed traders to import close to two million tonnes of raw sugar in the last two years against an obligation to re export it. Of this, close to one million tonnes is still to re-exported, traders said.

Traders said they had expected the ban to be totally lifted as output in the new season was very promising. Crushing of sugar in the new season is at it its peak in most mills.

The ban on sugar exports was imposed in July to curb rising prices due to tight supplies, and was due to run until the end of the financial year in March.

In recent weeks ministers have suggested the ban could be lifted early, but there have also been trade rumours such a move was being resisted by a finance ministry worried about rising inflation.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told reporters last week the time was appropriate to take a look at lifting the ban on sugar exports. Pawar said sugar output in 2006/07 (October-September) was likely to be 22.7 million tonnes, up from 19.3 million tonnes in the last season.

India's population of more than one billion people annually consumes about 19 million tonnes of sugar.

Shanti Lal Jain, director-general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association, had said last week India might lift the ban between Dec. 18-21.

The industry expects India to export 2 million tonnes sugar in the current season if the ban is totally lifted, although exporters will find global prices are much lower than they were in July.

Global sugar prices have fallen from an average $400 a tonne when the ban was imposed to $349 a tonne now, traders said.

Monday, December 18, 2006


Above 1300-1310 reliance goes into uncharted territory and can go berserk fib levels can be seen by the chart.

Reliance finds huge oil reserves in block D6

Reliance Industries Ltd has discovered huge oil reserves in its gas-rich D6 block in Krishna Godavari basin off the east coast, its minority partner Niko Resources of Canada has said.

"The MA-2 well has encountered the thickest hydrocarbon column discovered to date in D6," Niko Resources said in a release. Niko Resources has 10 per cent interest in the block KG-DWN-98/3, also known as D6. Reliance is the operator of the block with 90 per cent interest.

"MA-2 reached a target depth of 3581 metres and penetrated a gross hydrocarbon column of 194 metres consisting of 170 metres of gas/condensate and 24 metres of oil in the cretaceous section," the release said.

MA-2 is located approximately 2-km from the previous MA-1 oil discovery well.

"Application has been made for the commerciality of the MA field and approval is expected to be granted in the near future. The full field development plan will be submitted after approval of the commerciality and the oil development is to be fast tracke d with initial production targeted in the second quarter of 2008," it said.

The MA-1 well in June 2006 reached a total depth of 3,783 metres and hit 26 metres of net oil pay and 72 metres of net gas pay.

Reliance has till date made about a dozen gas discoveries in D6 and put combined reserves in the block at around 50 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). MA-2 is the second oil discovery on D6 after MA-1.

RIL may tie up with Gazprom for Russia

Private sector energy major Reliance Industries (RIL) is considering expanding its oil business to the land of the Volga and Vodka. It is talking to Russian government officials to enter the country’s downstream oil sector by investing in the refinery and petrochemical industry.

The RIL move follows the recent visit of Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Zhukov who was in the capital early December. Talks were held between RIL officials and the Russian authorities on possible investments in Russia’s oil and gas sector. RIL may even rope in a Russian oil firm as its partner for the projects.

Although there is no confirmation, sources indicated that Gazprom, the state-run Russian oil major, may well partner RIL’s downstream ventures in Russia. RIL, it is learnt, is expected to push for stakes in upstream oil and gas assets in lieu of its investments in the downstream sector.

When contacted, RIL officials declined to comment. In what is being seen as a strategic move, RIL is concentrating on the downstream segment in Russia which offers huge opportunities. The move comes at a time when Russia is in the process of increasing government control over its oil and gas assets.

Several major global energy players like Shell and Exxon Mobil have been forced, on the pretext of regulatory issues, to divest their stakes and take on Russian state oil firms like Gazprom as strategic partners. But while Russian authorities are on a nationalisation drive in the upstream sector, its refining sector lags behind, requiring huge investments.

RIL’s move to enter this segment will, therefore, be welcome as the company will bring in global expertise to Russia’s refining segment. On RIL’s part, an entry into Russia will provide a foothold in the European markets, where there is a growing demand for high-grade fuel.

Reliance is planning to service some of the European markets with its high-grade fuel from the under-construction RPL refinery in Jamnagar. A stake in Russia’s refinery industry will only help them service this market better.

Russia has a total of 41 oil refineries with a total crude oil processing capacity of 5.44 million bbl/d. According to an EIA report, many of the refineries are inefficient, ageing, and in need of modernisation. With Russian domestic demand at 2.6 million bbl/d in 2004, refining capacity far outstrips local needs for refined products.

According to the draft plan for economic development during 2005-08, Russia will concentrate on the reconstruction and upgrading of refineries so that they can convert a higher level of crude. The draft focuses on increasing the production of high-quality light oil products, catalysts and raw material for the petrochemical industry.

ONGC finds huge gas reserves in Bay of Bengal

Oil and Natural Gas Corp has made a huge gas find in Bay of Bengal, with initial estimates suggesting reserves of about 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf).

ONGC, which had previously discovered 2-3 tcf of gas reserves in about half-a-dozen wells in the Krishna-Godavari Basin block KG-DWN-98/2, struck a 28 metre net gas pay zone when deepsea drillship Belford Dolphin reached 5,300 metres depth at well UD-1, 55-kms from the coast.

"The ultra-deepwater well UD-1 is yet to reach its target depth of 6,500 meters and vertical seismic profile has thrown up at least one more pay zone larger than the one encountered. There could also be oil," an industry source said.

The well UD-1 will reach its target depth in next 10 days and testing will take another week.

"ONGC might be planning a new year gift to the nation with this (discovery)," the source quipped.

The state-run firm had done a mud drill test of the ultra-deepwater well UD-1 and preliminary estimate put in-place reserves at 600 billion cubic meters (over 21 tcf). The second net pay zone could be in excess of 80 meters and there appeared traces of oil too, the source said.

When contacted, Dinesh Kumar Pandey, director of exploration at ONGC, said: "It is too early to comment on reserves. We are yet to reach the target depth and will wait for conventional testing results before hazarding any guess on the size of the discovery." Reliance Industries Ltd estimates 50 tcf of in-place reserves in neighbouring KG-DWN-98/3 block, while Gujarat State Petroleum Corp had last year found 20 tcf reserves in a shallow water block in the same basin.

Soros set for first visit to India

Legendary investor George Soros is set to arrive in New Delhi on Monday for his first-ever visit to India. While the visit was dubbed as being “more on the personal side” by a member of his advance party, he is expected to meet CEOs, senior government officials, and get a sense of the Indian markets during his near week-long visit.

The 76-year-old Mr Soros will make his first public appearance in the capital on Tuesday, at an event being jointly organised by Ficci and the Sriram Centre for Industrial Relations & Human Resources (SRC). Here, he will release his new book titled The Age of Fallibility, which talks about the consequence of war on terror.

Following the book release, Mr Soros is also expected to touch base with some senior Indian policy makers and ministers. According to sources, he will meet top officals from the commerce ministry and unconfirmed reports suggest that a meeting with the PM could also be on the cards.

Mr Soros is also scheduled to meet select CEOs at a meeting in Mumbai on Friday. CEOs of the companies in which his funds have invested such as Fortis Healthcare’s Shivinder Singh, Ansal API’s Sushil Ansal and Unitech’s Sanjay Chandra have been invited for the meeting.

Sources say Mr Soros is considering stepping up his investments in India, with retail and real estate being areas of special interest. He has already invested close to Rs 100 crore for stakes in three prominent real estate players — Ansal Properties & Infrastructure, Unitech and Anant Raj Industries. Mr Soros also has investments in GMR Infrastructure and Fortis Healthcare.

Sunday, December 17, 2006


INFOSYS imediate target where it faces resistance is 2290-2300 cutting that we will have a new upmove else we can come back to touch the lower expanding trendline.
trade accordingly.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Farmers loving it.........

Twenty-five-year-old Mr Rami Reddy, whose joint family owns 20 acres in Lakshmareddy Gudem, a small village in Rangareddy district near Hyderabad, has been growing brinjals in one or two acres for the last eight years. But he never saw a price for his produce that he got this season from Reliance.

Not only that. He could save money, time and effort in taking the produce to the Bowenpally market, 40 km away. "All we need is to take the produce there. We need not pay any commission not to speak of the hamali charges," he said. "Two months ago, Reliance representatives came to me and told me about their plans to procure quality brinjals for their upcoming outlets in Hyderabad," he told Business Line. Mr Reddy is not alone. "It has become a hot topic for discussion among the villagers. Everybody talks about the attractive rates," he said.

Collection centre

He is not exaggerating. About 200 farmers from villages in the area have started selling their produce at the Collection Centre set up by Reliance at Shankarpally. The centre collects 7-8 tonnes of vegetables a day and send the lot to the central processing centre at Medchal. Vegetables from 2-3 such centres get graded again and processed there before getting into the 17 `Fresh' outlets the company opened in the twin cities.

"We used to sell a 20-kg bendi bag for just Rs 150. But now we are getting Rs 10-11 a kg," Mr Jangaiah of Alamkhangudem said. "It is not just the higher price. We also save on the 10 per cent commission we pay at the market yards," he said.

But they understood quite well that the `maal' should be fresh. "It should be plucked too in a certain way. All my life I grew bendi the way my father did and sold as he did in the market. They (Reliance) do not take the second grade vegetables. But it seems I have to change," said.

Mr Venkatrami Reddy of Chinnareddy Gudem saw another advantage. "They would tell me what quantity of vegetables they need from me. I'll go there and get my consignment graded at their collection centre," he said.

The centre would get the price-band and quantity of vegetables it needed to collect that particular day.

Mr Vithal, Secretary of the Agriculture Market Committee at Shankarpally, felt that the procurement by `Ranger Farms' (through which Reliance procures vegetables) has no impact on the arrivals at the committee.

The committee accepts vegetable consignments two days in a week. "Some days we receive more and some days we see less arrivals. We haven't yet seen any decrease on account of their (Reliance's) entry," he said.

Asked about farmers' claim that they paid 10 per cent as commission, Mr Vithal said the committee charged four per cent. The farmers also needed to pay for weighing and hamalis, he explained.

Friday, December 15, 2006


Thursday, December 14, 2006


suven trading in 5th wave buy in dips for immediate target of atleast 125 above 115

Tata Motors, Fiat to Invest 40 Billion Rupees in India Venture

Tata Motors Ltd., India's biggest truck and bus maker, and Fiat Auto SpA, Italy's largest manufacturer, will invest as much as 40 billion rupees ($895 million) to make new cars, engines and transmissions in India.

The automakers will manufacture and sell more than 100,000 vehicles annually, the companies said in a joint statement. Fiat will start selling its Grande Punto hatchback and Linea sedan models in India, the statement said.

Fiat Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne is forging alliances with Tata and Ford Motor Co. to share costs of developing parts and models after returning the 107-year old carmaker back to profit after four years of losses. Tata is spending 120 billion rupees in four years to expand capacity locally and overseas and develop new products.

Today's agreement followed a preliminary accord signed between Tata and Fiat in July to form the equal joint venture for the local and overseas markets. Fiat formed an alliance with Tata in January to market its cars through Tata's dealerships.

The European company currently sells the Palio hatchback and the Petra sedan in the country, producing it at the Kurla factory in western Maharashtra state.

Cars from the two companies will be made at Fiat's facility at Ranjangaon in western India. The facility is expected to produce as many as 100,000 cars and 200,000 engines and transmissions, they said.

Tata is developing new cars, sport-utility vehicles and trucks because demand for vehicles is rising in Asia's fourth- biggest automotive market. Tata raised $500 million in the past two years selling bonds overseas to raise funds for expansion and acquisitions.

Investment Plan

Global automakers are spending more than $4 billion building factories in India and to introduce new models to meet rising demand as India's passenger car sales are forecast to triple to 3 million units by 2015, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

General Motors Corp. is spending more than $300 million to make minicars in India starting next year, while Volkswagen will develop an India-specific hatchback by 2009, based on its Polo model.

Tata, which makes Indica cars and Sumo multi-utility- vehicles, is also exploring the possibility of cooperating with Fiat in Latin America, the companies said.

The current alliance with Fiat will help Tata to source technology and designs for competing with companies such as Suzuki Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Corp. in India, where only seven in 1,000 people own a car.

Three out of four cars sold in India are hatchbacks. Around half the car market is controlled by Maruti, a unit of Suzuki, as it produces five hatchback models, which are more efficient and cost less than sedans.


We saw smart recovery yesterday we are almost near a congestion area if my elliot wave count is correct either 4th wave B up is progressing or the correction is over :-) time will say that time being intraday support resistance levels have been shown on chart

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

nifty intra

Tuesday, December 12, 2006


I think no one will debate on that this is 4th wave so if you are of the same view then head down to see 4th wave different scenarios

this view holds good if we go up tomorrow this could probably be B WAVE rise of 4th main wave after which we see a C wave down

This could be the most admired view if this holds good according to this 4th wave has ended and a new impulse has started which means correction is over

The last and the terrible view A may be still happening and the rise what we saw in the last hour today could well be 4th of A wave which means we still have long way to go down
(this view looks quite remote to be true)


hi friends,

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Infosys finds a berth in Nasdaq-100

Infosys Technologies, the country’s second biggest software services exporter, just clinched yet another unique distinction.

It became the first Indian corporate to be included in a global index when NASDAQ announced that it had chosen the company to be a part of the NASDAQ-100 Index effective market opening on Monday, December 18, 2006.

This comes at a time when Infosys is celebrating its silver jubilee anniversary. It now joins the ranks of Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, Intel and Yahoo which form part of the NASDAQ-100.

On the NASDAQ, the Infy scrip closed at $55.03 (up 0.7%) on Friday with volumes of 2.07 million shares although on the National Stock Exchange(NSE) in India the scrip closed lower by 1.27% at Rs 2,195.55. At the time of ranking, Infosys ADS had a market capitalisation of $5.6 billion on the NASDAQ. On the NSE Infy ended on Friday with a market capitalisation of Rs 1.21 lakh crore.Besides Infosys, the other two stocks to be added to the NASDAQ-100 include Level 3 Communications Inc and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.

The NASDAQ-100 comprises of the 100 largest non financial stocks listed on the NASDAQ. Infosys, Level 3 and Vertex come in place of JDS Uniphase Corporation, Lincare Holdings Inc and Urban Outfitters Inc.

“The NASDAQ-100 Index is one of the world’s most recognised benchmarks that owes this distinction to its components-companies that are leaders in a diverse range of industries,” said John L Jacobs, executive vice-president of NASDAQ.
The inclusion of stocks into the NASDAQ-100 happens on the basis of a re-ranking exercise which is carried out each December.

“We are delighted to hear about the inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 Index. Companies like ours are helping corporates worldwide to effectively compete in a flat world,” said V Balakrishnan, CFO.

The Infosys inclusion comes after the company launched its third sponsored ADS issue which saw the floating stock increase in the international market (NASDAQ). Currently close to 20% of the Infosys stock is available on the NASDAQ.

As a part of the index, the Infy scrip will now be included in the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock, an exchange traded fund (ETF). The NASDAQ-100 along with NASDAQ Financial-100 Index were launched way back in January 1985.

Saturday, December 09, 2006


The following names are iflex insiders who sold before enjoying humongous rise in iflex stock price (missed the bus)

I-Flex Solutions Ltd

Mr. Deepak Ghaisas CEO India Operations 377,3 30-Oct-06
Mr. Deepak Ghaisas CEO India Operations 5,000 23-Nov-06
Mr. Deepak Ghaisas CEO India Operations 11,623 14-Nov-06
Mr. Deepak Ghaisas CEO India Operations 6,795 13-Nov-06
Mr. P Prasannavadanan 1,100 29-Nov-06-24-Nov-06
Mr. P Prasannavadanan 400 23-Nov-06
Mr. P V Jambu Natarajan 900 09-Nov-06
Mr. S Hariharan Senior Vice President 150 15-Nov-06
Mr. Sachin Joshi Key Management Personnel 1,000 05-30-Nov-06-Dec-06
Mr. Sridhar Padmanabhan Employee 2,000 28-Nov-06-05-Dec-06
Mr. V Shankar Employee 1,000 01-Dec-06-05-Dec-06
Mr. V Shankar Employee 3,000 24-Nov-06-29-Nov-06
Mr. V Shankar Employee 2,000 23-Nov-06
Mr.R Ravisankar 20,000 29-Nov-06(22-Nov-06 to 24-Nov-06)
Mrs. Meenakshy Iyer 700 09-Nov-06
Mr. V Shankar Employee 1,750 07-Dec-06-06-Dec-06
Mr. Avadhut Ketkar 500 07-05-Dec-06-Dec-06
Mr. Deepak Ghaisas CEO India Operations 5,493 07-Dec-06(04-Dec-06 & 05-Dec-06)
Ms. Swati Srinivasan 5,000 07-Dec-06(27-Nov-06 & 01-Dec-06)
Mr. V Srinivasan 7,000 07-01-Dec-06 -Dec-06

This proves again timing market is like sweating in Antarctica :-)

Rules of a Wall Street Master

The critical success factors in trading.The following rules taken from Vic Sperandeo's outstanding book Methods of a Wall Street Master, as he talks in detail about some of the more subjective success factors needed in this business.

1. Trade with the Plan. Stick to it. Every rationale, target, stop, and scenario should be thought out before the trade is entered. As Vic says, "confusion is your biggest enemy." The biggest thing you need to consider is your intended timeframe for the trade. If you know how long you want to hold the trade, the goals, stops, and volatility allowances will be easier to establish. But the bottom line is, plan your trade before you enter it.

2. The Trend Is Your Friend - Trade with the Trend. It's great to catch a reversal, but it's also very difficult. At least when taking a position with the market rather than against it, you can get off on the right foot. It all may change the next day, but you'll have at least a day's worth of cushion/gain. Taking a contrary position and praying for a reversal rarely works out well enough to make it worth doing.

3. Let Profits Run. Cut Losses Short. The second half (cut losses short) is the tougher part of this rule. It involves admitting that you were wrong. But in trading, rare is the case where you will eventually be proven right after being proven wrong. It's just not worth trying. If you struggle to cut losses short, you can counter-act that psychological devastation b
y letting your profits run (once your target is hit), and then telling yourself that not only were you right, you were really right, in that your target exit point was surpassed and you made a little more than originally planned. To do this, keep ratcheting up your stop-loss with each incremental gain above your original target.

4. Buy Weakness and Sell Strength. If you're waiting till the very end of a rally to make your exits, you've waited too long - you and about a million of your best friends are all thinking the same thing. Rarely does the end of a rally announce itself, and it never happens slowly enough to actually do anything about it (i.e. until it's basically too late). The same is true for bearish trades. This may seem contrary to # 3, and maybe in some ways it is. But the more important point of both of these rules is to maintain a trading discipline. The pros do, and so should you.

5. Don't Trade Off of Tips. A tip is rarely more than opinion, and frequently a bad one at that. Even if the tip comes from a friend, don't take it. If you have a hard time with this, go back to #2 - the trend is your friend. Burn this into your head! Unfortunately, in trading, a friend is not always a friend.

6. Never Trade If Your Success Depends on a Good (Lucky?) Execution. If getting a fill that is not currently marketable is critical, you may want to go back to #1 and make sure you're trading your plan. Great trade set-ups will always be great, even if you have to pay a little more to actually get into the trade. If you (or your broker) have to fight hard to get filled at a certain price, that's the market's way of telling you that this trade will not be an easy one to make profitable

India Can Average 9 Percent GDP Growth in 2007-12, Singh Says

India can sustain average economic growth of 9 percent annually between 2007 and 2012, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said today.

Such growth is ``feasible'', Singh said at a meeting with chief ministers of India's states in New Delhi today, according to a copy of the speech made available to reporters.

India, the world's second-fastest growing major economy, wants to accelerate economic growth to 10 percent to cut poverty in the nation of 1.1 billion people. More than half the nation's population lives on less than $2 a day, according to World Bank estimates.

India's economy has grown more than 8 percent in six of the past seven quarters, gaining 9.2 percent in the three months to Sept. 30. China's $2.2 trillion economy, Asia's second-largest, expanded 10.4 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30, the quickest pace among the world's 20 largest economies and almost four times the 2.6 percent gain in the 12 European nations sharing the euro.

Thursday, December 07, 2006


EIHOTEL 5th wave started this could be a pole pennant in 5th wave sl can be near 102 with immediate target 111 ,114 and over all near 124

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Sensex Breaks on Through 14k… but Will the Run Last?

Just months after a May-June 2006 market meltdown to 9,000, Bombay’s Sensex index just crossed the crucial psychological 14,000 barrier for the first time ever, thanks to overwhelming strength in earnings growth from companies in IT, banking, telecom, infrastructure, construction and capital goods. This comes just months after we called for a breakthrough of the 13,000 level on optimistic predictions for the Indian economy.

But, has India become the next China? Not quite yet. Still, the numbers are impressive. In fact, GDP grew at an 8.9% clip for the quarter ended June 30. If it can maintain 8% growth this year, “that would be the fourth straight year it has reached that benchmark, making it one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies after China,” according to India’s GDP grew at a 9.2% clip in July-September 2006.

Even better, according to, “Growth in India’s economy is benefiting from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to increase spending on roads, ports and other infrastructure by a quarter to 992 billion rupees ($21 billion) in the year that started April 1 in a bid to attract overseas manufacturing companies and spur growth to 10 percent over a decade. That will help cut poverty in a nation where 35 percent of 1.1 billion people lives on less than $1 a day.”

But while the economic news remains positive, India could be in store for some tough times. India inflation “rose a sixth of a percentage point to nudge the central bank’s ceiling of 5.50 percent… fanning economists’ expectations of another rate hike,” according to Gulf Daily News. Worse still, “Equity and housing markets look overbought and the current account has moved sharply into deficit. Besides interest-rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India, little is being done by the government to orchestrate a soft landing,” according to The Economist.

According, Ajay Dua, secretary for the department of industrial promotion and policy, says India faces three scenarios over the next 20 years: “There’s the ‘Bolly World’ scenario, which envisions “initial economic success, but which was not sustained. At the other end of the scale was ‘Pehla Bharat’ or India First with leapfrogging infrastructure, poverty alleviation, higher incomes and increased share in world trade. In between these was the ‘Atakta Bharat’ horror, which as the name implies, saw the country literally getting stuck as governance collapsed, the economy stumbled and social inequalities widened.

And, according to, “Starting by saying he [Ajay] was ‘not in fear’ of the first, Ajay Dua, secretary (industrial policy) in the commerce ministry, went on to admit that ‘a whole lot of action is required’ to transit to the other. He also conceded to major shortcomings in the six key areas the Pehla Bharat model was predicated on. Be it poverty alleviation, agricultural and rural development, healthcare, access to education, leapfrogging infrastructure or adequate governance, Dua admitted, ‘we are not moving fast enough.’”

While the economy, according to Dua, has doubled during the last 15 years, consumer demand grew threefold, the manufacturing sector grew by 12% and the foreign trade jumped by 8%. Agriculture (an industry upon which 60% of India’s population relies) only grew 3%. IT growth has not trickled down to the farming sector. Twenty-six percent of Indians live below poverty levels. And terrorist attacks are impacting economic growth.

Worse, while the Indian economy continues at its blistering pace, India is facing a shortage of skilled workers in all fields, “and this could hamper its economic development,” according to Minister Manmohan Singh, as quoted in the International Herald Tribune. His comments, according to the source, “run contrary to the general picture of India portrayed by the government, which prefers to promote the image of an Indian economic renaissance based on the availability of low-wage skilled workers.”

The bullish rallies in India have been quite impressive. But how much longer will they last?

Ian L. Cooper,
Founder, Early Alert Trader and Death Cross


Tuesday, December 05, 2006

The Sensex story: 1,000 to 14,000

Strong global markets and major fund and FII investments in heavyweight auto, pharma, IT and metals stocks lifted the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share Sensex past the magical 14,000-mark during intra-day trade on Tuesday. (See below for the timeline).

The unprecedented Bull Run started on May 6, 2003 when the Sensex was at 3,001.21 level. In took just 67 trading sessions to cross the 4,000-mark and touch 4,026.27 points on August 19, 2003.

The rally continued and the index gained another 1,000 points in 54 trading sessions to post 5,068.66 points on November 3, 2003.

Thereafter, it pierced through the 6,000 mark on January 2, 2004 in another 43 trading sessions. The market then seemed to pause for breath as it took a whopping 370 trading sessions to cross the 7,000 mark, at 7001.55 on June 20, 2005.

From 7,000-mark, the sentiment turned distinctly firm following good liquidity that played a significant role to determine the market direction and Sensex crossed 8,000-mark in just 55 trading sessions at 8,060.26 on September 8, 2005 and 54 trading days to cross 9,000-mark at 9,005.63 on November 28, 2005.

From 9K to 10K, it took just 48 trading sessions. The index crossed 10,000-mark on February 6, 2006 at 10,002.83.

From 10K to 11K, it only took 29 trading sessions.

The Bombay Stock Exchange, the oldest stock exchange in Asia, was established in 1875 as the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association at Dalal Street in Mumbai. A lot has changed since then when 318 persons became members upon paying Re 1.

In 1956, the BSE obtained permanent recognition from the Government of India -- the first stock exchange to do so -- under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.

The Sensex, first compiled in 1986, is a 'Market Capitalisation-Weighted' Index of 30 component stocks representing a sample of large and financially sound companies. The BSE-Sensex is the benchmark index of the Indian capital markets.

The BSE Sensex comprises these 30 stocks: ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy's, Gujarat Ambuja, Grasim, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, Hindalco, HLL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, NTPC, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance, Reliance Energy, Satyam, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, TCS, Tata Motors and Wipro.

Following is the timeline on the rise and rise of the Sensex through Indian stock market history.

1000, July 25, 1990

On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.

2000, January 15, 1992

On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000-mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.

3000, February 29, 1992

On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.

4000, March 30, 1992

On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling.

5000, October 8, 1999

On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election.

6000, February 11, 2000

On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006.

7000, June 20, 2005

On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capital and IPCL made huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time.

8000, September 8, 2005

On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading.

9000, November 28, 2005

The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed the magical figure of 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well supported by local operators as well as retail investors.

10,000, February 7, 2006

The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006.

11,000, March 27, 2006

The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points.

12,000, April 20, 2006
The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed the 12,000-mark and closed at a peak of 12,040 points for the first time.

13,000, October 30, 2006

The Sensex on October 30, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 13,000 and closed at 13,024.26 points, up 117.45 points or 0.9%. It took 135 days for the Sensex to move from 12,000 to 13,000 and 123 days to move from 12,500 to 13,000.

14,000, December 5, 2006

The Sensex on December 5, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 14,000 to touch 14,028 points in early morning trade. It took 36 days for the Sensex to move from 13,000 to the 14,000 mark.
source :- rediff money