Showing posts with label Dowjones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dowjones. Show all posts

Saturday, November 13, 2010

>Dowjones elliott wave counts

A post after a long gap,Was busy with work would try to be consistent now on.

Dowjones chart present structure fits in a rather rare kind of elliot wave structure called
as expanded flat.
If this structure works there could be some serious pain across world markets this christmas.
Ofcourse once the pattern finishes can expect nice rally as shown in the below chart.
This scenario suggests nice rally by year 2011 start.Sit back and see how the waves unfold.
There is a less likely scenario where dow rallies directly to C wave targets which looks unlikely.
We will analyze thing as they unfold .

RESEARCH REPORTS

Saturday, March 07, 2009

>How far could the DOW fall?

Wall Street pundits howled last July when we said the Dow would plunge to 7200 — a 37% decline.

Now, with the Dow well BELOW 7200, the critics have fallen silent — and some are even mimicking our forecast that Dow 5000 is dead ahead.

Here’s why even that dire medium-term forecast is still just the beginning — why the Dow could ultimately fall to 3500 ... 2500 ... 1500 or even lower ...

And how you can USE this great bear market to pile up greater profits in less time than you may now believe possible ...

How far will the Dow fall? Where will it hit rock bottom?

If you’re not asking this question right now, you should be.

It is absolutely essential that you get the answer right — for two, compelling reasons:

If you’re wrong, every sucker rally in this bear market could have you buying at the wrong time, then getting your head handed to you as the crash resumes.

But if you get it right, not only can you make a bundle with contrarian investments all the way down ... you’ll also be primed to earn windfall profits at the real bottom — picking up great stocks for pennies on the dollar!

You probably know that the average Dow stock crashed 89% between 1929 and 1932. So the question now is ...

When future history books are written, will they
say that this crisis was less severe than the
Great Depression? About the same? Or WORSE?

Of course, anyone who tells you he knows precisely where the Dow will hit rock bottom is pulling your leg. But consider the evidence ...

Fact #1: Earnings declines are now worse than in America’s First Great Depression. Average earnings have plunged 61% year-over-year, much more than during the 1930s. In fact, the last time earnings declined more than 61% was 141 long years ago!

Fact #2: Consumer losses are worse as well. Last time around, the losses that triggered the depression were largely limited to stock market investors.

This time, the fact that the average NYSE stock has already wiped out HALF investors’ money is only the tip of the iceberg: The equity most folks count on as their #1 source of retirement savings has also been wiped out as our homes have lost a staggering $2.4 trillion of their value in a single year.

Fact #3: Debts are far larger. Like this crisis, the Great Depression was essentially a debt implosion. But in 1929, total debts represented no more than 170% of GDP. This time around, U.S. consumers are buried under a far larger mountain of mortgage debt, auto loan debt, credit card debt and other consumer debts. Result: Total debts are now close to 350% of GDP — TWO TIMES MORE!

Fact #4: Derivatives! The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that U.S. banks now hold a $176-trillion mountain of derivatives, many of which are extremely high risk. In 1929, these derivatives were virtually non-existent.

Fact #5: Giant failures. In the first 18 months of the 1929-32 bear market, there were many small and medium-sized bank failures. However, none were as massive or as dangerous as the giant failures we’ve experienced in the first 18 months of this giant bear market.

This time around, the failures (or bailouts) of giants like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia dwarf anything seen in 1929. And even these large failures will be trumped several times over by the impending demise of Citigroup and AIG.

Fact #6: U.S. is a debtor nation! In 1929, the United States was a creditor nation, with substantial foreign reserves. Today, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation, dependent on foreign lenders to keep it afloat. That means that there’s a definite limit to how much longer the U.S. government can continue to borrow to bail out failing institutions.

Fact #7: The economic collapse and debt crisis are far from over! Just this morning, for example, we learned that

* Home prices have plunged 18.5%.

* Sales of existing homes have fallen to the lowest level in twelve years.

* Sales of new homes cratered to an all-time record low.

* 697,000 American families lost a paycheck in February — a 25% increase from January’s abysmal figures.

BOTTOM LINE: This crisis is AT LEAST as severe as the Great Depression, and the decline in stocks could be as well. That means, you could make the case that it could ultimately drive the Dow to as low as 1500.


Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
RESEARCH REPORTS

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

>Dow jones Technical Analysis

I have come up with a update on dowjones Chart Analysis after a long gap.
In the last analysis Dow jones as was discussed Dow was in 4th of 3rd main wave,
which finished near 9700.From there 5th of main 3rd started which
ended near 7500.A good 1200 points.

So the killer 3rd main wave of dowjones is over,And presently we are in
4th main wave.

According to chart the parallel line channel holds much importance which
projects the upper resistance at 9500.

downside 8200-8000 is a good support .

These corrective ups give great opportunity for Traders Dowjones already saw
great run 7500 to 9000.

Regards
Rish
RESEARCH REPORTS

Saturday, November 15, 2008

>Dowjones Analysis(ELLIOTT wave)

Dow jones was in a consolidation phase for last one month that consolidation pattern
turned out to be 4th wave formation according to Elliott wave theory.
See first chart the wave started from the big black arrow,Till october panic low thats
7900 we completed 3 waves down .

Then a possible bearish Flat to complete 4th wave.
Come to next chart which shows the expanded 4th wave chart,Which shows (3,3,5)
Bearish flat.4th wave ended at 9700.

From there we are witnessing a possible 5th down.
The next few days movement of Dow should clear the wave structure to some more extent.
Nifty too in 4th wave but we are behind dowjones as dowjones looks to have completed 4th wave
wheras Nifty still in 4th wave.:)
NIFTY ANALYSIS

Regards
Rish


RESEARCH REPORTS

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

>Dowjones Analysis

Dowjones Trading at a critial point,A kindoff triangle
After overpowering first trendline resistance presently
Trading near short term trendline resistance.To show more
strength Dowjones would have to overpower this trendline.
The pre election rally would show more momentum if 9550 is
taken out on closing basis.
Two closes above 9550 Dowjones can target 9800.

Though ,I expect retrace from this trendline if the upmove has to
show more strength.
Downside if 9300 is broken 9000 retest is not ruled out.

Regards
Rish.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

>Dowjones Analysis



Dowjones the impulse started from 7884 is making 5 up from there
with the force full impulsive 3rd already over expect some correction
before Dowjones tests 9900-10000 levels.
Good selling can be seen from 10000 levels.
Plan your trades accordingly.
Good Trading opportunity for those who can track the trend properly
wide swings,Investors should remain cautious:).

Regards
Rish

Monday, October 06, 2008

>Dowjones relief rally should come soon

It seems that most of the ingredients are here for a good relief rally. Fear is through the roof. The fear based indicators such as VIX are spiking higher. The impending doom of USA financial markets is being broadcast on every channel, and every Analyst on the street is debating how we got here and who is responsible. And has anyone noticed that the financials as a whole are not making lower lows inspite of the fact that the news couldn't be any worse.

If you see the above 5 yearly chart of dowjones its trading on that cluster support band which was formed in 2004-2005.
Ideally, It may have another plunge followed by a swift rally reversal to trap the bears, but there are no guarantees that the market doesn't crash either. Maybe we are on the brink of financial armageddon. The truth is we won't know until it's in the rear view mirror, so the best we can do is wait patiently to pounce on the rebound.

Regards
Rish