Saturday, November 07, 2009

>Nifty Elliott wave Analysis

After much wait Nifty did fall and yes it was a fall worth mentioning.

640+ points in a matter of week,Can we take this fall as a routine fall which makes
the uptrend more strong or it is different this time.

We here speculate different possibilities which are outcome of different techniques ,Tool
or strategies.
I extensively use Elliott wave theory to fulfill my trade requirements.The general mood in
market is to buy on dips but here a logical question arises, Whats the depth of the dip that's
where levels come handy.

Turning back to NIFTY ..
The nifty could well be making a big expanded flat(3,3,5) spread over several months
with 2 zig zags already finished ,There could well be stage set for a impulse down but
there are still many ifs and buts still:).

In simple words 4950 is a level above which nifty bulls would feel comfortable
Bears would be comfortable below 4800.

I would look to short this market in rises where a short setup looks good ,And would continue to do so till i see a new high 2nd wave can retrace 99% of 1st wave .

A chart is attached to show the expected move if 4950 is not broken up convincingly
Do let me know your counts.

Regards
Rish

RESEARCH REPORTS

25 comments:

JAI said...

Rish,

Thanks for update and is it possible that raise since Mar is a-b-c of wave B, higher degree and current fall is wave C in its infancy.

Regards
Manju

Rish said...

Hi Jai
It would be nice if you give levels of specific waves

Anonymous said...

Hi Rish If I have understand correctly what Jay is saying from March09 bottom to October09 Top is entire one count to be counted as bigger B, having internal 3 subwaves having March bottom to JUne Top as a, June top to July bottom as b and July bottom to October high as c as sub waves and Now bigger C has opened having 1st down wave you have marked as 1 on the Graph..If we count that way what should be further counts & targets..??? I am unable to post with my ID as Piyush Shah having mail ID as pinals6@gmail.com so posting as Anonymous...!!!

Rish said...

Hi Piyush,
That would be a much scarier picture let nifty give more clues would unfold waves accordingly !!

Anonymous said...

Yes I know it is scarier picture but I am having in my mind that possibility and I will not wonder if that happens.. If that so happens what would be your likely target..?? My time frame calculation suggest by June 2010 to November 2010 depending upon global cues and Indian Monsoon figure..

JAI said...

Piyush thanks for ellaborating my comments and Rish please consider my post without levels and also is it your current wave count [A]-[B]-[C] is wave X of larger degree and once it is complete we should see wave Y surpass the Oct high.

Also Piyush if that happens it is likely to break the previous lows and Once Rish posted alternate view on Nifty going to 1000 levels not sure about date and it likely to end in 2011 rather than 2010.

Rish thanks for wonderfull chart.

Mayank said...

Hi Rish. Can u pls mention if u consider it as a part of Wave 4 FLAT on one higher degree. If it is then Wave 4 can't take as much time as this had already taken so far. Pls post your observations.

Rish said...

Hi Jai

Don't speculate that far as of now waves keep changing watching individual stock waves don't show very deep fall as of now also my personal experience keep waves simple complex correcting waves will only confuse more take one part at a time and resolve it !!!

Rish said...

Hi Mayank,
This could very well be a 4th wave flat
and has to indeed perform fast ,Most probably IT may help by initiating their 4th wave,Lets give nifty lil more time things would clear in a weeks time I think.

Pinals said...

Its o.k. Jay & Thanks for your views.. & Rish thanking you for your views.. Keep updating as and when you feel so, particularly when Market is at crucial level..!!!

Anonymous said...

Hi Rish,
will the march low ever be broken or is it start of primary bull market.

Thanks
Pankaj

Rish said...

Hi Pankaj,
2010 may witness big dip how big is not known yet.

Bluechips 4 U said...

In your weekly chart see these key levels Wave 1 started on 27-10-2008 @ 2250 till 05-11-2008 @ 3250 from where Wave 2 started to end on 06-03-2009 @ 2540. Wave 3 from there went on to culminate @ 4709 on 11-06-2009. Wave 4 corrected till 3920 on 13-07-2009 (notice wave 2 is time wise quite big while wave 4 is quite sharp) Finally Wave 5 ended @ 5181 on 20-10-2009. What has started from there is a ABC formation of which only "A" has been completed while "B" is on the verge of being exhausted. The "C" wave should retrace to minimum Wave 4 level of 3920 but can surely extend further till May 18, 2009 levels. One should surely not thinking of buying here at all. Do the sub wave counts of this "B" Wave up and a trigger to exit longs / go short are clearly visible.

Rish said...

Hi Bluechip
Let me elaborate why i don't feel 5up
is done
a)I am not able to resolve the wave into 5 subwaves it looks clear 3 wave up does'nt look like an impulse (Iam talking of wave started from 13-07-09
b)If u think 5 up is done than don't u think the A wave which you think finished near 4540 is too small compared to the impulse which preceded this move.
c)IT looks to be on verge of starting 4th wave i cannot see 5ups in tht (3RD EXTENSON most probably)

Bluechips 4 U said...

Hi Rish
Noted your views.
[1] Please note this recent break-down is a 50% retracement of the rise from 3920 and a 23% retracement from 2540 (start of wave 3). So not too small.
[2] If we have a Wave 5 failure then the C Wave down can compensate for this A wave down which you find too small. Moreover it can happen at a fast speed. Which makes it all the more reason to be cautious now. Take a look at key heavyweight stocks, all indicate downside.

Rish said...

If we have a 5th failure then yes anyhow fall is giving good risk reward was it a fifth failure or not will take some time to know ,Though i am still not taking it as a failure a failure could and should give free fall.

Anonymous said...

what is your view after todays move..???

Piyush

Rish said...

Still same it was expected though the speed is fast 4935 should be 61.82% retracement from top.

Rudy the Wiz said...

Hi Rish,

4935 should be 61.82% retracement of the fall of 646 points and from bottom of 4540. Hope that is what you meant. Just clarifying. :)

Regards,
Rudra

Rish said...

yea Rudy that's what i meant.

Rudy the Wiz said...

Hi Rish,

With market touching 5000 in this leg up, has the count changed?

If Nifty crosses the previous high of 5180, we have to consider that the B-wave is still on....right? And in that case the top could be anything higher than 5180...is that correct?

Please tell us your views given today's run.

Thanks,
Rudra

Rish said...

Hi Rudra ,
I Would suggest lets wait for some more time before redrawing waves,this move is fast let it give clues it may not end up being a B in the end !!!

Rish said...

This could well be lil different the C i expected may have finished near 4540 and we have a new impulse up next few days will give more concrete evidence about this scenario.

Rudy the Wiz said...

Hi Rish,

With this view, would you mind drawing the new chart so that we can visualize what we are talking about here?

Thanks,
Rudra

I.Spy said...

Maximum retracement and move can be 100% of the previous move (worst / best case senario)...Can that also hold here in case of NIFTY ???

A new chart would help learners :D

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