Sunday, November 23, 2008

>FII Selling Pattern (year 2008)

Weekend,Its raining here in Bangalore had nothing constructive to do,
Thought let me ramble with FII selling we witnessed this year(2008) till now.

In 2008 top three months of wealth destruction till now are

January

June

October

October being the darkest month of the year till now.

January (OHLC)=6138,6356,4450,5171 A loss of 15%

June (OHLC)=4870,4906,4022,4025 A loss of 17%

October (OHLC)=3921,4000,2253,2905 A loss of 27%

Lets compare the FII selling in these 3 months

January FII sold=-17,226.90 (cr)

June FII sold =
-10,577.70 (cr)

October FII sold=
-14,248.60 (cr)

Now run your eye through the attached chart of nifty.

It clearly shows though the fall was steep traders/Investors were quite eager to buy
because by the time month ended more than half of fall was retraced (Traders were hopeful)

Come to June its calm compare to January but absolutely no retrace and the month ended
quite near to the monthly low.(Traders sold too not hopeful of rise) One thing to look for
though this being the lowest out of the three months comparing FII selling .Still it managed to shave off 17% off Nifty.

The October comes darkest of the three "mayhem" Bear salsa world over FII sold lesser than
compared to January but we witnessed Nifty being lighter by 27% .
Distress sale,Panic sale etc etc and what not.Long term investors sold there blue chips.
Sentiments negative to the core no one wanted to talk about stocks etc etc.

Then suddenly from no where we witnessed sharp and swift rally in October itself
From a low of 2250 to 2900 that's 650 points in a week, Of course on low volumes:)
Retail was quite scared to buy.

Data source :-Moneycontrol
RESEARCH REPORTS

2 comments:

sohamdas said...

Wow! intelligent analysis.

This just gave a good confirmation that, markets will retest its lows only to weed out the last of its dumb money[stage 1, mission 1 complete: weed the first block of dumb money]
Now onto stage 1,mission 2: The dead cat bounce... or trapping those who sold on the panic... pros caught the unaware seller in its net and minted money...

Now, Stage 2: Mission 1: Retest the lows, and weed out the last of the dumb money...

And final mission, trap the sellers, and go flat....

A dumb money's prognosis: Take it with a pinch of salt.

Soham Das
Jump Up!

Anonymous said...

the thing is it is such a good plays where bears are not confidant to short
the brave bears will know what is going on
FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE BEARS but with aSL timewise

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