>Nifty analysis

What do all of the following items have in common?
a) A needle in a haystack
b) A diamond in the rough
c) A confident investor in the INDIAN stock market.

Answer: They’re all next to impossible to find.

This October month is by far worst month since 2003 where 1st wave started on monthly chart.
We have already lost 22% in NIFTY this month with still 7,8 trading days pending.
Stocks are falling like cards,No support looks solid enough to hold this avalanche.
The biggest stock RELIANCE which holds 12% weightage in Nifty fell 5-9% consistently for the last 2 weeks,Which ensured that any relief rally which came got fizzled out in few days.
A positive point here Bluechip falling signals bad days are numbered.

On chart RELIANCE looks like should give a corrective bounce within next 100-120 points fall.

Coming back to "NIFTY"

The monthly chart suggests we are in 4th wave
Since wave 2 was small in size and time expect 4th wave to be big in size(which it already is)
as well as time consuming,So thinking that we would be out of this soon would be futile.


This could be a nightmare for INVESTORS but delight for Traders.

INVESTORS would have to adapt to the present conditions,They cannot just buy and sleep.
once you get 20-50% take your profits or Trail them and wait for next opportunity.

New high looks elusive for next 1-2 years at least .

With this slowdown in place ,Companies would have to cut down on many expenditures.
And usually the scissor falls on marketing.
Due to which I feel online marketing + Advertising would be more viable.
Try to find companies which are directly or indirectly get influenced by this
Do let me know too :) write in comments.

Coming back to "NIFTY"

As we witnessed each rally got washed out in few days.
We end up making a new low every time a rally is fizzled.
In this process we are making lower highs and lower lows.
An ideal case for falling wedge.
So keep this in mind and lookout for such pattern.

As for the chart 2000 in NIFTY is the crude sl for this 4th wave as below that the whole assumption of our waves goes for a toss .

Before that 2550-2600 the 2006 june lows is a very good support level.

Even before that 3000-2800 band too looks promising . We will see in coming days how these levels react .

Regards
Rish

>$200 oil: How could have oil experts gotten it so wrong?

Hi Friends,
A nice explanation of greed , fear,optimism and trader psychology,Go through the following Article which explains about the 5 wave structure of OIL with corresponding events unfolding.
Read it and try to recollect what was going through your mind during that phase of oil bull run:).


Three months ago, you couldn't swing a baseball bat in a crowd without hitting someone screaming that the world was running out of oil.

But after reaching a record high of $147 a barrel in July, oil fell as low as $68.57 (on October 16 -- Ed.) – a 50% decline. Before oil slipped below $70, "Goldman Sachs, among those predicting $200 a barrel oil, cut its year-end forecast of oil to $70…" (AP)

How could have "those predicting $200 a barrel oil" gotten it so wrong?

"To be fair, there is always a tendency in parts of the analyst community to look at short-turn trends and assume it’s something that will continue in perpetuity,” commented on the situation an analyst with the International Energy Agency.

Exactly. Isn't projecting short-term trends into infinity the definition of every financial bubble?

Avoiding such predicaments is precisely what Elliott wave analysis helps you accomplish. A study of market psychology, the Wave Principle helps you find psychological extremes in market charts – and then, ideally, forecast a change in trend before it occurs. A priceless advantage, indeed.
Here's how Elliott wave analysis could have helped you navigate around the oil bubble. On June 4, 2008 – still a month before oil's all-time high – Steve Hochberg, editor of Elliott Wave International's Mn-Wd-Fri Short Term Update posted this chart


Later, on August 11, 2008, The Short Term Update wrote:

Oil is down 23% from its July high. [This] chart was published in the June issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and shows our call for a top. Prices traced out five waves from the December 1998 low and carried to just above the upper line of an unorthodox parallel trend channel. Optimism was at near-record levels and the president of OPEC stated (shortly thereafter) that, “prices won’t come down.” It was a very strong confluence of conditions that indicated a reversal.


Near term, prices have closed lower the past two days, which is interesting in that if there ever was a fundamental “reason” for oil to shoot higher, it is Russia’s invasion of Georgia. I believe that they even shut down a pipeline. When psychology reaches an extreme and the trend turns, all the supposed reasons pundits cited as to why prices were rising matter little. Nearly all were rationalizations to begin with, and the change in psychology exposes their flaws.

And that brings us to today. Here's an update on that oil chart from the June 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

Now that oil has dropped 48% from its July peak – into the forecast area of "the previous fourth wave" – we may see market sentiment reach a low extreme. What will that mean for oil going forward?

Regards
Rish

Source :-Elliott wave international

>Displined Trading(Van Tharp)

Discipline Factors

Respond-ability
Beliefs
Low self-esteem.

“I would feel much better about myself, if I were more secure financially."

Feelings getting in the way of trading or investing. Fear and anger are not useful to
trading success.
Conflicts between internal parts of ourselves. For example, conflict might occur
between your excitement part and the part that wants to make money.

Download and read the ebook from this link....Displined Trading(Van Tharp)

Regards
Rish

>SBI analysis

Hi friends,
This is my second post on SBI ,I feel SBI is one of those INDEX stocks
which are following Elliott wave Theory with perfection,Can check my last post on SBI
here.... SBI Autopsy. Getting back on present situation of SBI.

It looks like SBI again making a 5 wave structure from dun 1200 levels
and presently trading is the 5th final of the present local wave.
with a conservative target of 1600-1610,Which also coincides with the previous multiple
tops,There's a good possibility this giving good resistance to further upmove.


Hmm RBI cutting CRR continuously keeping banking sector in limelight
Well if RBI continues to cut CRR like this there's a possibility that this 5th may extend:)
Few levels to watch in extension,1660 and 1720
Let that happen and I would be back again with a update on SBI.

Regards
Rish