Wednesday, January 04, 2012

>Indian stock market outlook for year 2012

Year 2011 was a troublesome year as far as equity market is concerned.
2011 saw nifty correcting 25% from a high of 6181 to a low of 4531.
Year 2011 was not a trending market it unfolded in complex waves
which rises or reverses without giving much confirmation or clues.
We witnessed steep falls followed by steep rises ,With rises competing
with falls in speed.
Year 2011 saw nifty unfolding in WXYXZ with Z entering in year 2012
which is the last leg of this complex 5 waves.Here the classic similarity
between alternate X wave retraced previous complex wave by 60% and
above which shows us how tedious was it for a short term trader to trade.
The above chart shows the respective waves.

Year 2012 is expected to be trending market
as compared to year 2011 we should witness good rally after we finish Z which should
see many value and badly beaten midcap stocks to rise back considerably ,Would be
concentrating on infra segment ,Indian story depends lot on this sector.To sum up
wxyxz should finish a A of larger degree should see a big B unfolding after that,
Would elaborate more on this as the wave starts to unfold,Overall this year should
give good trading opportunity to a shrewd trader.


Anonymous said...

Dear Rish,

you analysis is superb. Could you please roughly predict the bottom of the current Z wave(which will be the start of the bigger B wave and also the top of the bigger B wave along with the time when it could be achieved. This will be extremely helpful to people like me to take important long term decisions.

I mean, is it something like say Z ends at around 4200-4000 level where bigger B starts and the B ends at around 5500-5700 levels where the bigger C starts taking markets way down to around 3500-3000 levels?


Anonymous said...


Rish said...

Hi friends,
Post comments with your id or name no anonymous comments it becomes easy to interact when you know the name or ID.


Shah said...

hey Rishi,

I am following your blog since 4 years now. I have been on & off the market.
Really appreciate your knowledge & hard work.

Your write up on Indian stock market outlook for year 2012 is pretty good.
Would you be able to tell me should I entire the market now or should I wait for bottom of Z wave.

Also would appreciate if you can tell us 2 stocks which we can invest for this year.


Rish said...

hi shah and pushkar
Nifty would give clues for further move as of now its still in Z down ,I am resolving the internal structure of Z waves it could be either a simple ABC what i had posted in my first view or a ending diagonal which i gave in my second view till 4880-4900 is not broken up would go with ending diagonal count ,Would update as it unfolds

Rish said...

Any investment you do now should be done keeping in mind 3,4 yr horizon would post few stocks when i think its good have mentioned already i like infra sector for investment .

ptk said...

Thanks Rish

Shah said...

Any particular stocks to invest in Infra sector.

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