Thursday, November 13, 2008

>Overcoming Market Panic

When I was a beginning trader, I naively believed that a 100-share trade was no different from a 10,000 share one, since both could be executed with the same entries, exits, and money management. What I failed to appreciate is that the risk of any trade or investment affects our ability to evaluate it calmly, rationally, and objectively. A head of a brokerage firm, which offered free simulated trading to new traders, once told me that 80% of the traders made money in the (very realistic) simulations, but only 20% were successful once they traded real money. The difference, he observed, was the emotional impact of having actual money on the line.
In this same vein, a reader asks the Doc:
When I was younger and fitter I played soccer. My skills were okay, but I tended to panic when I possessed the ball and heard the opposition hurtling towards me.
Unfortunately I've carried this kink in my think over into my share trading.
I love trading. I've been learning and applying in earnest for the past year and have managed to overcome several barriers. However, three times I have panicked during a broad market sell off and sold out as I watched my paper profits disappear.
The latest example was yesterday. I'd struck a purple patch recently and the paper profits were looking very healthy. However, my positions began retracing without hitting my stops and those paper profits disappeared like sand slipping through my fingers.
When the market dropped yesterday, I found this too much to handle and I sold out at just above break even!
I know I won't be a good trader until I learn a few strategies to conquer this these panic attacks.
I have a few observations and suggestions for our earnest and motivated trader. But first, let me ask you—the reader—to review what he wrote and identify what you think is the most important thing he said. One way of doing that is to figure out what you would first ask him if you were counseling him directly. Would you inquire about:

• The soccer experience
• His emotional reaction to sell-offs
• Yesterday’s market incident
• His desire to be a good trader
• Or something else?

My first question to our trader would be “something else”. I would say to him, “That’s interesting; you say you’ve managed to overcome several barriers. Could you tell me about those barriers and how you overcame them?”

Why would I ask this? Simple: Whatever he did to overcome his earlier barriers may hold the kernel of a solution for his current dilemma. Those solutions reflect the genuine and unique strengths of each individual. Instead of focusing on the problem and unwittingly reinforcing the notion that he is the problem—Note how easily he jumps from the issue of handling sell-offs to the larger, personalized problem of “I know I won’t be a good trader”—it makes sense to apply his known strengths to the challenge at hand. This reinforces the important message that even very good traders face huge hurdles to success.

This approach is known as solution-focused brief therapy, and it is particularly effective as a change strategy for those of us facing normal life dilemmas. Let’s say you come to me with a trading issue and I find out that you recently worked out a marital problem. You and your spouse learned to be better listeners by not taking disagreements personally and, instead, using them to identify each other’s needs and desires. Right away, we might then take a look at how you’ve been able to listen to your spouse and how you became able to not take differences personally. Perhaps this same strategy could work when it comes to listening to the market and not allowing your self-esteem to ride the market’s ups and downs!

The working assumption of the solution-focused therapist is that somewhere, at some time, each of us has successfully dealt with situations that are similar to the present dilemma. Depressed people aren’t always depressed, so how about finding out what they’re doing when they’re feeling better about themselves? Couples with problems don’t always argue; what are they doing right when they’re getting along? And our trader is not always panicking in the market, even when markets don’t always move his way. It would be worth identifying what he’s doing during those times: the kernels of solutions are often hidden in exceptions to problem patterns.

As it happens, I faced a dilemma much like our trader’s early in my trading career. I became panicky whenever I increased my size, as even normal movements against my position felt too risky. I overcame that problem when I examined how I handled risk in other areas of my life. For example, whenever I tackled a new project as a psychologist, such as writing a journal article, I always made sure that there was a guaranteed home for the article before I had finished it. I did this by consulting with editors ahead of the writing. My logic was that, by securing my publication, I could free myself to focus on the process of writing.

Similarly with trading, I learned to take guaranteed profits when positions went my way. Once a trade moved in my favor by the amount I was willing to risk on the trade, I immediately created a trailing stop on the position that guaranteed a profit. As a result, a winning trade could never become a loser. As the position moved in my favor, the stop moved with it, locking in an increasing profit. The security of knowing, “This trade will be a winner, no matter what” provided the reassurance I needed to counteract fears of risk. In my work with high frequency traders, I’ve used the same rationale to create trailing stops on daily profit/loss, so that, once the trader is up by a certain amount of money during the day, the stop point for the trading session is moved to a level of assured profitability.

My solution may not be yours; the beauty of solution-focused counseling is that it allows each person to craft solutions based on their experience—not the abstract advice of a guru. If you can identify the occasions when you’re already a good trader, the chances are good that an analysis of those occasions will start you on the road toward solving the next market challenge.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D



RESEARCH REPORTS

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

>INSIDE TRADING 12-11-2008

523269Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) Ltd.Haresh G Advani07/11/2008B500
570590512.35
523269Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) Ltd.Natasha Mirchandani14/10/2008B100
7390301.60
532475Aptech Ltd.Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Pac27/10/2008 - 04/11/2008B10000002.151600440334.41
506074Arshiya International LtdMerrill Lynch Capital Mkts Espana SA.SA06/11/2008B601000
3195186
527001Ashapura Minechem LtdChetan Navnitlal Shah06/11/2008B125000
1033796413.08
532493Astra Microwave Products Ltd.L & T Capital Company Ltd.07/11/2008B671650.1227628245.11
500031Bajaj Electricals Ltd.,Shri R Ramakrishnan06/11/2008S5695
90050.05
532694Bartronics India Ltd.Satya Straps and Packing Technologies Lt10/11/2008B19567906.7528827909.95
522059Champagne Indage Ltd.,DB International (Asia) Ltd.31/10/2008S10215396.69--
530871Chembond Chemicals Ltd.Dr. Vinod D. Shah.06/11/2008B200
--
511672Clarus Finance & Securities LtdMr. Manakchand Jain25/09/2008 - 23/10/2008B22950
2429008.09
532608Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd.T Venkattram Reddy10/11/2008B185000
5019241620.50
532608Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd.T Vinayak Ravi Reddy10/11/2008B185000
5019241620.50
532608Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd.P K Iyer10/11/2008B185000
5019241620.50
526227Filatex India Ltd.Purrshottam Bhaggeria04/11/2008 - 05/11/2008B45000
11858006.92
526227Filatex India Ltd.Purrshottam Bhaggeria06/11/2008 - 07/11/2008B45000
12308007.18
532521Four Soft LimitedMr. Palem Srikath Reddy06/11/2008 - 10/11/2008B37490
834652621.42
504028GEE Ltd.Vidya Finvest Pvt Ltd.06/11/2008B68991
315207821.23
504028GEE Ltd.Vidya Finvest Pvt Ltd.07/11/2008B47662
319974021.55
532715Gitanjali Gems Ltd.Mehul C Choksi06/11/2008B320000.043517900041.36
532715Gitanjali Gems Ltd.Goldman Sachs Invest.(Mauritius) I Ltd.06/02/2008 - 03/11/2008B21984342.58--
532715Gitanjali Gems Ltd.Goldman Sachs Invest.(Mauritius)I Ltd06/02/2008 - 03/11/2008S46215335.43--
532715Gitanjali Gems Ltd.Goldman Sachs Invest(Mauritius) I Ltd06/02/2008 - 03/11/2008N163145
33579483.95
532976Jai Balaji Industries LimitedK D Jajodia Steel Industries Pvt Ltd.07/11/2008B1000000.2120749504.40
502901Jam Shri Ranjitsinghji Spg.& Wvg.MiNavratan Damani.06/11/2008B1850.002548127.28
531382Jayavant Products Limited,Jitendra J Mehta & PAC06/11/2008B13000.03239440045.61
526209K.S.Oils Ltd.Ramesh Chand Garg07/11/2008B175007
5993627916.82
513269Man Industries (India) LtdNikhil Mansukhani03/11/2008B64738
7764821.45
513269Man Industries (India) LtdPriyal Mansukhani10/11/2008B2938
5985271.12
513269Man Industries (India) LtdNikhil Mansukhani06/11/2008B2100
7785821.45
513269Man Industries (India) LtdPriyal Mansukhani06/11/2008B13500
5882661.10
513269Man Industries (India) LtdPriyal Mansukhani07/11/2008B7323
5955891.11
532407Moschip Semiconductor Technology Ltd.Sathyanarayan Kalyanasundaram05/11/2008B1000
--
532407Moschip Semiconductor Technology Ltd.Sathyanarayan Kalyanasundaram10/11/2008B1000
--
501343Motor & General Finance (M.G.F.) LtRam Prakash & Co Pvt Ltd.--B150000.083482641.80
514328Nachmo Knitex Ltd.Amrakadamb Investments Pvt Ltd.03/11/2008B1345140.8910265126.83
514328Nachmo Knitex Ltd.Amrashagun Investments Pvt Ltd.03/11/2008B750000.4910286416.84
513023Nava Bharat Ventures LtdG P Vardhana Rao05/11/2008 - 07/11/2008B800
7512
530305Piccadily Agro Industries ltd.Sh. Siddhartha Vashishta28/10/2008 - 29/10/2008B20720.0117750407.53
507498Piccadily Sugar & Allied Ltd.Sh. Siddhartha Vashishta28/10/2008 - 31/10/2008B89160.02457495615.50
500359Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.,Malvinder Mohan Singh & ShivinderM Singh07/11/2008S4802090011.422080
532348Subex LtdSubash Menon07/11/2008B2239
18813075.39
507785Tainwala Chemicals & Plastics LtdDungarmal Tainwala10/11/2008B17500
220795523.58
500114Titan Industries LtdMathews International Funds12/07/2008 - 27/10/2008S700000.1613374843.01
526879UT Ltd.Smt. Vandana Khaitan--B1740
1375782.26
500465Varun Shipping Co. Ltd.,Mr. Arun Mehta10/11/2008 - 11/11/2008B100000
42000002.80
B - Buy
S - Sale


RESEARCH REPORTS

>LIC Portfolio Top 40 Stocks

Click on the picture to enlarge it.


RESEARCH REPORTS

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

>Nifty Analysis(Elliott view)

With this fast changing world ,Where news reaches from one corner of world to another
corner in seconds.,Which in turn can influence moment of stock markets worldwide and
increases volatility. A daunting situation for a trader.

Tracking Nifty waves as of now is no less than solving a puzzle.
Let me give my perspective .

Most of the elliotticians would back my on this when I say this is 4th sub wave of the main
3rd wave started on(5/5).

Lets get closer to 3rd main wave we can see a clear 3 waves in it till 27/10.
So here we reach the present situation 4th subwave of main 3rd wave.

Now in 3rd main wave the 2nd sub wave was a simple Zig zag.
Also since 1st subwave is not equal to 3rd subwave or
3rd sub wave is not equal to 0.62*1st subwave

We probably should have a Flat or a triangle here in 4th sub wave.

Lets get little closer to 4th sub wave

The rise from 2250( 27/10) low to 3240(5/11)high(green arrow)
this wave is 3 wave structure or
5wave structure is a debatable topic,:)

Though what happened after that look clear.

From 3240 to 2860 we did 5 waves down(Red arrow) Then...

From 2860 to 3160 we did 3 up(S blue arrow).

So the fall which we witnessed today should consist of 5 waves down.

The First target of this wave comes near 2800-2780
Second target comes near 2600-2550.

Note..A close below 2860 should open... way for down levels.

Let this happen and I would be ready with next Part Analysis

Regards
Rish

Comments welcome

RESEARCH REPORTS