Sunday, August 10, 2008
Thursday, August 07, 2008
>BOTTOM HUNTERS FIIs? NO!!!
Hmmm ,A little insight about FII behavior
This thing has literally been injected in to traders mind that FIIs are GOD
If they buy we go up if they sell we go down ,Dear friends thats not true
Yes FIIs hold importance too but not to that extent that Traders just try to follow them.
History has showed Fiis tend to sell more near lows and buy big at highs.
A recent example FIIs did no 4 digit buys at bottom
They bought 1600+ cr the day govt got majority and that was the wave 1 top:)
I am attaching a chart which shows you what buy sell happened from FIIs and MFs since that july 17th bottom which shows no considerable buys from them .The two green arrows shows 4 digits buys by FIIs on that particular day and those 2 days made respective tops.
I think its usually the OPERATORS ,LIC ,UTI etc who tend to enjoy this bottom buying
so called strong hands.
views welcome can write your views in comments
Regards
Rish
This thing has literally been injected in to traders mind that FIIs are GOD
If they buy we go up if they sell we go down ,Dear friends thats not true
Yes FIIs hold importance too but not to that extent that Traders just try to follow them.
History has showed Fiis tend to sell more near lows and buy big at highs.
A recent example FIIs did no 4 digit buys at bottom
They bought 1600+ cr the day govt got majority and that was the wave 1 top:)
I am attaching a chart which shows you what buy sell happened from FIIs and MFs since that july 17th bottom which shows no considerable buys from them .The two green arrows shows 4 digits buys by FIIs on that particular day and those 2 days made respective tops.
I think its usually the OPERATORS ,LIC ,UTI etc who tend to enjoy this bottom buying
so called strong hands.
views welcome can write your views in comments
Regards
Rish
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
>Nifty bottom?
Have we hit a short term bottom we will try to find out
Few indications which suggest we have hit short term bottom.
1:-Extreme pessimism
2:-Too much volatility
3:-Individual heavyweights showing good structures
4:-Nifty making higher lows
5:-Option players buying too many PUTS.
6:-Nifty looks to have finished 5 down waves from top
Lets try to discuss about above points.
Near bottoms Invester sentiment seems to be generally negative, Bearish investment advisors should exceed bulls near important market lows.People start talking about LC(lower circuits):)
I believe the odds favor that the ultimate low will be made in a climactic fashion. A climactic day would be a day that the market is down sharply in early trading, This would be followed by a complete reversal in the afternoon, with stocks up sharply on heavy volume.
We saw such trading pattern on 2nd july when most of the stocks dropped sharply but in the afternoon session recovered smartly to close up with huge gains ,Nifty closed well above 5% gains.
I believe the long decline in stocks has ended . We even saw extreme cases where most FnO stocks fell more than 10% in a very short span of time, a short sharp drop in stocks prices. This period of capitulation had pushed investor sentiment to a bearish extreme.
Till 2nd july, the short-sellers have been right. However, when sentiment shifts this much and with this level of conviction, it eventually results in a swing the other way. This creates a situation where any buying can force these traders back into the market to either cover shorts or get reinvested.
Volatility increased considerably during this period nifty moving 4-5% in a single day
Options players had increased their purchase of Put options. Usually, option players pick up their Put buying near market bottom.
Technically too nifty making higher lows after that 2nd july mayhem also nifty held its long term trendline.
Hope I have explained properly what I wanted to say:)
Falls would still be coming but they would all make this rise stronger.
Cheers
Rish
yahoo id:-rish.trader
Few indications which suggest we have hit short term bottom.
1:-Extreme pessimism
2:-Too much volatility
3:-Individual heavyweights showing good structures
4:-Nifty making higher lows
5:-Option players buying too many PUTS.
6:-Nifty looks to have finished 5 down waves from top
Lets try to discuss about above points.
Near bottoms Invester sentiment seems to be generally negative, Bearish investment advisors should exceed bulls near important market lows.People start talking about LC(lower circuits):)
I believe the odds favor that the ultimate low will be made in a climactic fashion. A climactic day would be a day that the market is down sharply in early trading, This would be followed by a complete reversal in the afternoon, with stocks up sharply on heavy volume.
We saw such trading pattern on 2nd july when most of the stocks dropped sharply but in the afternoon session recovered smartly to close up with huge gains ,Nifty closed well above 5% gains.
I believe the long decline in stocks has ended . We even saw extreme cases where most FnO stocks fell more than 10% in a very short span of time, a short sharp drop in stocks prices. This period of capitulation had pushed investor sentiment to a bearish extreme.
Till 2nd july, the short-sellers have been right. However, when sentiment shifts this much and with this level of conviction, it eventually results in a swing the other way. This creates a situation where any buying can force these traders back into the market to either cover shorts or get reinvested.
Volatility increased considerably during this period nifty moving 4-5% in a single day
Options players had increased their purchase of Put options. Usually, option players pick up their Put buying near market bottom.
Technically too nifty making higher lows after that 2nd july mayhem also nifty held its long term trendline.
Hope I have explained properly what I wanted to say:)
Falls would still be coming but they would all make this rise stronger.
Cheers
Rish
yahoo id:-rish.trader
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
>Realestate blues
Big daddies of Indian real estate story are trading below there yearly lows and shows no signs of recovery.
DLF
Made a new low and is drifting down every day falling in a slanting down channel
broke its low made during IPO so its a total new territory for the stock .
UNITECH
Falling continuously in a sharp down channel made its new yearly low 160 looks a support hope
for bulls .
Dont jump into realestate scripts watch these two heavyweights before buying into real estate stocks .
Regards
Rish
DLF
Made a new low and is drifting down every day falling in a slanting down channel
broke its low made during IPO so its a total new territory for the stock .
UNITECH
Falling continuously in a sharp down channel made its new yearly low 160 looks a support hope
for bulls .
Dont jump into realestate scripts watch these two heavyweights before buying into real estate stocks .
Regards
Rish
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