| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B - Buy | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S - Sale | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RESEARCH REPORTS
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
>INSIDER TRADING 24-02-2009
RESEARCH REPORTS
Monday, February 23, 2009
>Heard on street(Bulls & Bears)
A recent family function of the Old Fox, who was one of the highest advance taxpayers among brokers last quarter, was attended by some of the top
| |
guns — past, present and even aspiring ones — of the stock market. Though informal get-togethers of various groups of brokers are common, it is rare that players from various camps come together and share their views about the market.
At the function, every big name in the business was asked about his Sensex forecast for December 31, 2009 and one stock or more, which would move 50%, along with its direction. As per the list available with ET, the broader consensus is that the Sensex could end at 10,000-12,000 in the said period.
The 'Rare'ing bull is believed to have assigned a target of 12,000 for the index, while one of the most successful bear traders in recent times, who shares the first name with the agricultural minister, set a target of 5,000. A flamboyant equity fund manager at a top private mutual fund, projected the Sensex at 10,000, while a co-promoter of a leading broking firm that went public in 2007 sees the index at 9,700 in December 31.
The 'silent operator', known for his huge bets in Hindalco and cement shares, forecast the index at 11,000, while the Old Fox set a target of 8,000. The more interesting part of the poll was the 'darkhorses' that were identified. The 'silent operator' named Maruti and Ranbaxy, the 'Rare'ing bull — HOEC and Lupin, the fund manager — Ranbaxy and HPCL as the stocks that could see a 50% upside. The bear trader is bullish on Bayer Crop Science, and pessimistic on real estate companies (even at these levels!!!). The Old Fox indicated his preference for gold and HPCL, and is negative on DLF.
Old Fox is RK (Radhakishan ) Damani ............ . n he is also knwn as "white n white" & was busy in the family function his daughter's marriage.... .......
'Rare'ing bull-RJ
'silent operator',-Nemish
RESEARCH REPORTS
Saturday, February 21, 2009
>European Monetary System in Big Trouble
When others were fawning over the European Union and its committee creation of the euro, Milton Friedman made this prescient and brilliant comment:
"It seems to me that Europe, especially with the addition of more countries, is becoming ever-more susceptible to any asymmetric shock. Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe's internal contradictions will tear it apart."
Bingo!
As you can see from my chart, the euro is plummeting against the dollar, and could possibly come back to its old low of 82 cents ...
Now, I don't know which internal contradictions Friedman may have been thinking about when he made that comment. But here are three key ones I see going on today that are causing the euro to tumble:
Internal contraction #1 —
Lack of synchronized business cycles ...
This has always been a problem because there is only one central bank with one monetary policy to fit all members. The European Central Bank (ECB) generally follows a monetary policy that makes sense for Germany (the largest and most powerful member). That is why the ECB has been very late to the party in lowering rates, which I think has damaged the periphery countries unnecessarily.
Internal contraction #2 —
Lack of fiscal discipline
among members ...
The southern tier members of the union — Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIGS) — are fiscal basket cases. On the other hand, Germany and France have maintained the original disciplines. Rising internal political pressures means the fiscal-basket-case countries either have, or will, far exceed the fiscal discipline treaties they signed in order to remain viable members of the monetary union.
This is why risk is now being priced into the monetary system in a big way and can be clearly seen in the widening yield spreads between the weaker countries and Germany.
In fact, not long ago the spreads between the PIGS and Germany were only a few basis points for 10-year bonds. Now they are in the range of several hundred basis points and climbing!
Internal contraction #3 —
Lack of political unity ...
On paper this treaty is called a "union." But the cultural and political divide among member countries is still palpable; at least when you move outside of Brussels.
So when things get tough, as they are now, it is every country for itself. Nationalist tensions are rising fast. If that genie escapes from the bottle, it's game over, as Mr. Friedman said.
And as if all of this isn't bad enough, the "union" has to deal with huge banking exposure to eastern and central Europe.
If you are a consistent reader of my Money and Markets columns, you know that I have been warning of this looming problem for months. And this week it is finally hitting the headlines of the financial news.
I refer to this as the ...
Achilles Heel of the Euro
The multi-trillion dollar exposure to defaults in eastern and central Europe — Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary, and Poland — that sits on the balance sheets of banks in Switzerland (non-EU member), Austria, Germany, and Spain will ripple through the union like dominoes. This will surely add even more pressure fiscally and further drain the coffers of treasuries, and possibly cause unbearable damage to the euro monetary system.
Now don't get me wrong, none of this is good news for the U.S. If the euro monetary system comes unglued, it will be yet another drain on global demand and have nasty implications here as well. But it comes back to the old adage of currency investing — it's all relative.
And the U.S. dollar wins by default.
Best wishes,
Jack
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
RESEARCH REPORTS
"It seems to me that Europe, especially with the addition of more countries, is becoming ever-more susceptible to any asymmetric shock. Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe's internal contradictions will tear it apart."
Bingo!
As you can see from my chart, the euro is plummeting against the dollar, and could possibly come back to its old low of 82 cents ...
Now, I don't know which internal contradictions Friedman may have been thinking about when he made that comment. But here are three key ones I see going on today that are causing the euro to tumble:
Internal contraction #1 —
Lack of synchronized business cycles ...
This has always been a problem because there is only one central bank with one monetary policy to fit all members. The European Central Bank (ECB) generally follows a monetary policy that makes sense for Germany (the largest and most powerful member). That is why the ECB has been very late to the party in lowering rates, which I think has damaged the periphery countries unnecessarily.
Internal contraction #2 —
Lack of fiscal discipline
among members ...
The southern tier members of the union — Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIGS) — are fiscal basket cases. On the other hand, Germany and France have maintained the original disciplines. Rising internal political pressures means the fiscal-basket-case countries either have, or will, far exceed the fiscal discipline treaties they signed in order to remain viable members of the monetary union.
This is why risk is now being priced into the monetary system in a big way and can be clearly seen in the widening yield spreads between the weaker countries and Germany.
In fact, not long ago the spreads between the PIGS and Germany were only a few basis points for 10-year bonds. Now they are in the range of several hundred basis points and climbing!
Internal contraction #3 —
Lack of political unity ...
On paper this treaty is called a "union." But the cultural and political divide among member countries is still palpable; at least when you move outside of Brussels.
So when things get tough, as they are now, it is every country for itself. Nationalist tensions are rising fast. If that genie escapes from the bottle, it's game over, as Mr. Friedman said.
And as if all of this isn't bad enough, the "union" has to deal with huge banking exposure to eastern and central Europe.
If you are a consistent reader of my Money and Markets columns, you know that I have been warning of this looming problem for months. And this week it is finally hitting the headlines of the financial news.
I refer to this as the ...
Achilles Heel of the Euro
The multi-trillion dollar exposure to defaults in eastern and central Europe — Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary, and Poland — that sits on the balance sheets of banks in Switzerland (non-EU member), Austria, Germany, and Spain will ripple through the union like dominoes. This will surely add even more pressure fiscally and further drain the coffers of treasuries, and possibly cause unbearable damage to the euro monetary system.
Now don't get me wrong, none of this is good news for the U.S. If the euro monetary system comes unglued, it will be yet another drain on global demand and have nasty implications here as well. But it comes back to the old adage of currency investing — it's all relative.
And the U.S. dollar wins by default.
Best wishes,
Jack
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
RESEARCH REPORTS
Friday, February 20, 2009
>INSIDER TRADING 20-02-2009
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B - Buy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S - Sale | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RESEARCH REPORTS
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)