Tuesday, November 18, 2008

>Reliance Technical Analysis(ELLIOTT)

Reliance as we all know the heaviest of all index(Nifty) stocks and its movement affects
Nifty movement to a larger extent compared to any other stock.

From January high,If we try to break Reliance waves it looks like it did 3 down waves till
27th oct low.Wave 2 being a simple zig zag ,4th wave could do a bearish flat or a triangle.

The current conditions look well suited for a bearish flat(3,3,5),Though the 3 wave b part
still looks incomplete its a warning to shorts to keep strict sl as the rise would be of same
momentum as we witnessed from 27thoct low.

1180 above reliance should be strong and target 1300 and subsequently 1480.
These levels are outcome of Technicals applied on chart and should not
be compared or analyzed with fundamentals:).

On chart the dotted green trendline is the trend decider.If a close is given above that that
would give strength to this view.

The strongness of this view holds if Reliance trades above 1180 and gives a close above that.

Regards
Rish

Learn how to trade Elliott waves Trading Elliott waves


RESEARCH REPORTS

Monday, November 17, 2008

>INSIDE TRADING 17-11-2008

512599Adani Enterprises Ltd.SB Adani Family Trust11/11/2008B58000002.35115828550046.75
532828AMD Industries LtdHarswarup Gupta14/11/2008B4823
17893449.33
531881Arvind Chemicals ltd.Gaurav Vinimay Pvt Ltd & Others.29/10/2008 - 03/11/2008B530000.26215753010.89
531881Arvind Chemicals ltd.Gaurav Vinimay Pvt Ltd & Others.06/11/2008B300000.15218753011.04
524760Arvind International ltd.Anupama Bajoria.10/10/2008 - 13/10/2008B45000.065549407.91
524760Arvind International ltd.Anupama Bajoria.20/10/2008B16000.025565407.93
530619Asian CERC InformationTechnology Ltd.Sudhanshu Varma16/09/2008 - 03/11/2008S13946
660510.29
500820Asian Paints (India) Ltd.,Shri Amar A Vakil12/11/2008B34500
10985211.15
500820Asian Paints (India) Ltd.,Mr. Abhay A Vakil12/11/2008B30000
10852141.13
532380Baba Arts LtdAjay Acharya Jt. Malvika Acharya11/11/2008 - 14/11/2008B9191
2591912.01
503960Bharat Bijlee Ltd.,Shome N Danani06/11/2008B30
28980.05
531590Bilpower Ltd.Suresh Kumar Choudhary.03/11/2008 - 07/11/2008B175130.162266732.15
532813C & C Constructions Ltd.Rajendra Mohan Aggarwal10/11/2008 - 14/11/2008B5660
3581481.96
519600CCL Products (India) Ltd.Challa Srishant.07/11/2008 - 10/11/2008B29510.026786905.10
500040Century Textiles & Industries Ltd.,Shri B K Birla11/11/2008B7100
179000.01
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdT R Seetharaman10/11/2008B2170
1955330.53
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdS Sivaramakrishnan10/11/2008B10500
16680804.51
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdR Sarabeswar10/11/2008B10700
16567054.48
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdV G Janarthanam10/11/2008B4130
9603482.60
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdS Sivaramkrishnan11/11/2008B750
16688304.51
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdR Sarabeswar11/11/2008B591
16572964.48
532902Consolidated Construction Consortium LtdV G Janarthanam14/11/2008B450
9607982.60
522295Control Print (India) Ltd.Piyush Shah23/10/2008B12000.0212000.02
522295Control Print (India) Ltd.Mr. K R S Nair23/10/2008B12000.0212000.02
500096Dabur India Ltd.Mr. Sunil Duggal10/11/2008S6237
15311080.17
532760Deep Industries LimitedKewal Shah -HUF23/10/2008B10000
427370.21
511072Dewan Housing Finance Corpn. Ltd.,M/s Wadhawan Holdings Pvt Ltd.12/11/2008B3000
36833076.09
531923Dhampure Speciality Sugars Ltd.Mr. Sorabh Gupta--B30450.04178715024.96
522261Dolphin Offshore Enterprises (India) ltd.Mr. Navpreet Singh11/11/2008B1000
6845897.16
522261Dolphin Offshore Enterprises (India) ltd.Rear Admiral Kirpal Singh12/11/2008B1482
4802825.02
530023Fortune Financial Services (India)Mrs. Jalpa Nimish Shah.10/11/2008B400
4842064.36
504028GEE Ltd.Mr. Shankarlal Agarwal.10/11/2008B15492
11177497.52
504028GEE Ltd.Mr. Shankarlal Agarwal.11/11/2008B6704
11244537.57
504028GEE Ltd.Vidya Finvest Pvt Ltd.10/11/2008B77755
327749522.07
504028GEE Ltd.Vidya Finvest Pvt Ltd.11/11/2008B121135
339863022.89
501455Greaves Cotton Ltd.Bharat Projects Pvt Ltd31/10/2008 - 05/11/2008B950000.19--
500160GTL LtdSophia Growth-Somerset India Fund06/08/2008 - 04/11/2008B41210944.36--
500160GTL LtdSophia Growth-Somerset India Fund06/08/2008 - 04/11/2008S12000001.2776491008.09
526217Hitech Plast Ltd.Mr. Ashok K Goyal12/11/2008B14166
1080000.82
500875ITC LtdMr. Anup Singh05/11/2008 - 07/11/2008S31030
87570
500875ITC LtdMr. B B Chatterjee06/11/2008S4000
47000
532976Jai Balaji Industries LimitedK.D. Jajodia Steel Industries Pvt Ltd.10/11/2008B900000.1921649504.59
502901Jam Shri Ranjitsinghji Spg.& Wvg.MiNavratan Damani.07/11/2008B1490.002549617.28
532519JK Sugar LimitedBharat Hari Singhania05/11/2008B126000
1456331.41
532747Kingfisher Airlines LimitedDeccan Emerging Business Ventures P Ltd06/11/2008S430000.0211346490.43
532747Kingfisher Airlines LimitedCapt. G R Gopinath05/11/2008S3289700.12135278365.09
532747Kingfisher Airlines LimitedCapt. G R Gopinath06/11/2008S5250000.19130028364.89
532747Kingfisher Airlines LimitedCapt. G R Gopinath07/11/2008S2760250.10127268114.79
500520Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.Mr. Nadir B Godjrej07/11/2008 - 10/11/2008B1500
1429360.05
513269Man Industries (India) LtdPriyal Mansukhani11/11/2008B10158
6086851.14
523704Mastek LimitedAshank Desai11/11/2008 - 12/11/2008B1900
317408011.80
524816Natco Pharma Ltd.Time Cap Pharma Labs Pvt Ltd.10/11/2008 - 11/11/2008B498000.18322803511.51
513023Nava Bharat Ventures LtdA. N. Investments Pvt. Ltd.12/11/2008B170000.0234168324.38
513023Nava Bharat Ventures LtdP Trivikrama Prasad12/11/2008B17000
14369921.84
511551Networth Stock Broking Ltd.S P Jain11/11/2008B30000
267122323.78
506605Polychem LtdVirsun Investments Pvt Ltd11/11/2008B276
8501621.04
522205Praj Industries Ltd.Mr. Pramod Chaudhari10/11/2008B163197
2875505415.68
532675Prithvi Information Solutions Ltd.Copthall Mauritius Invest Ltd & PAC07/11/2008B2479021.371427484
532793Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision LtdDahlia Traders Pvt Ltd12/11/2008B20000
345802733.00
532793Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision LtdDahlia Traders Pvt Ltd12/11/2008S20000
343802732.81
524542Sukhjit Starch & Chemicals Ltd.Shri Dhiraj Sardana06/11/2008B134
3439994.66
532509Suprajit Engineering Ltd.Mr. Ajith Kumar Rai13/11/2008B8888
438823236.56
532509Suprajit Engineering Ltd.Mrs. Supriya Rai13/11/2008B7197
154468812.87
507785Tainwala Chemicals & Plastics LtdDungarmal Tainwala12/11/2008B3465
221142023.61
532477Union Bank of IndiaLife Insurance Corporation Of India.06/11/2008B10097210.19254678985.04
532619UTV Software Communications Ltd.FID Korea India Equity IT MTHR & Others12/11/2008S14564994.268498762.49
532953V-Guard Industries Ltd.Kochouseph Chittilappilly06/11/2008 - 10/11/2008B28098
632529821.20
502986Vardhman Textiles LimtedFranklin Templeton Mutual Fund05/11/2008S100000
17396633.01
506720Zandu Pharmaceuticals Works LtdEmami Limited10/11/2008B37230.4654259067.28
B - Buy
S - Sale


RESEARCH REPORTS

Sunday, November 16, 2008

>Lakshmi Mittal loses $50-bn in five months

After braving the global financial crisis for months, the creaks are getting wider in the market value of steel empire created by the world's richest Indian Lakshmi Mittal, with about USD 50 billion knocked off from the net worth of NRI business tycoon himself.

While the US and European markets started their downslide way back in August-September last year, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, continued to gain value till about five months ago and its share price scaled a life-time high of 104.77 dollars on June 5 at the US bourses.

However, the valuation has now dipped to below the one-fourth of its record high level and the company's shares, which are listed at NYSE as well as on some European bourses, are currently trading near 25 dollars level.

During these five months, the company's market capitalisation has also plummeted to 37.3 billion dollars, from a high of over 150 billion dollars. Accordingly, the net worth of Lakshmi Mittal, who along with his family members hold a 43.02 per cent equity, has also dipped to just about 16 billion dollars from as high as about 66 billion dollars on June 5.

According to the company's latest shareholding data, the Mittal family owns 623.285 million shares of the company, while the remaining holding is in the form of public holding and treasury shares.

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>OIL Producers( HUNTER getting HUNTED)!!!

Together they form an “Axis of Diesel”. Buoyed by petrodollars, Russia, Iran and Venezuela hectored the West as they extended their reach abroad, backing separatists in Georgia, Islamists in the Middle East and Leftists around the world.

Now those oil-producing powers may be forced to draw in their horns as crude prices tumble. They face austerity budgets that could force them to scale back their military spending and foreign assistance even as falling oil prices fuel domestic dissent.

“All countries heavily dependent on petroleum revenue are nervously watching oil prices as they drop not just far, but quickly,” said Jonathan Elkind, a senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“That price adjustment is raising questions in all these capitals about the suitability of the economic model that has been making them feel so full of themselves in the recent period.

“It would be a serious mistake for people in the United States or other net consumers to feel a sense of the satisfaction that ‘Happy days are here again',” he said. “They're not.”

Leaders in Tehran, Moscow and Caracas have gloated as the financial crisis has hobbled the United States and its Western allies. Analysts say that the three swaggering petro-states are the most vulnerable oil producers to the steep price declines. From a record high of $147 (£85) a barrel in July, crude oil is now trading at around $70 after dipping to its lowest level since August 2007.

Deutsche Bank estimated in a recent research note that Iran and Venezuela need an oil price of more than $95 a barrel to balance their budgets, and Russia requires a price of $75. That compares to a break-even figure of $55 for Saudi Arabia.

Iran and Venezuela have led so-called oil hawks in recent days to push the producer cartel Opec to bring forward an emergency meeting to next Friday, from mid-November, to discuss cutting output quotas to drive up the price. While Russia has prudently salted away much of its oil windfall in “rainy day” funds, Iran and Venezuela are much worse prepared for the downturn, Mr Elkind said.

The tumbling oil prices are grim news for President Ahmadinejad of Iran as he prepares to fight for re-election next June. The populist son of a blacksmith won a landslide election victory three years ago by pledging to give the poor a fairer share of Iran's oil wealth. Now the economy is his Achilles' heel. His profligate spending of petrodollars from record oil revenues has stoked inflation, which topped 29 per cent last month, compared with 12 per cent when he took power.

Bazaar merchants - a potent middle-class force - went on strike last week for the first time since the run-up to the country's Islamic revolution, forcing Mr Ahmadinejad to scrap plans to impose 3 per cent VAT to help to replenish Iran's coffers.

Iranian reformers are urging the headstrong Mr Ahmadinejad to prepare for lower oil revenues by slashing subsidies on commodities such as sugar, cooking oil and wheat. Instead, with an eye on the elections, he continues to tour the provinces, attempting to buy rural support by dispensing largesse in cash and loans.

In Venezuela the Government has unveiled an austerity budget. Just as in Iran, however, Mr Chávez maintains his populist social spending ahead of municipal and state elections. Economic analysts predict that the Government will be forced to raise taxes and devalue the currency.

First affected may be Venezuela's foreign allies. The country's energy aid to friendly nations, which has bought it influence across the continent, is likely to be reined in. Its generous credit programme for Caribbean partners in the PetroCaribe energy accord has been reduced from 50 to 40 per cent.

Defence spending may also be hit. Venezuela has bought about $4.4 billion-worth of Russian military equipment since 2005. Last month it got a $1 billion Russian loan for more purchases - the first time it has sought financing for arms deals with Moscow.

Russia is best positioned for the crisis, having built up the world's third-largest foreign currency reserves before the crisis, at $580 billion. As its stock market plunged it has been forced to spend more than $32 billion in the past two weeks to prop up the currency and bail out banks. The Kremlin will be forced to plug holes in next year's budget by dipping into the Reserve Fund, a $154 billion repository of windfall oil revenues forecast to grow to $174 billion by 2010, but may now start to shrink instead.

President Medvedev, however, is determined to press on with modernisation of the military and has adopted an increasingly strident tone with the West. He has ordered a renovation of Russia's nuclear deterrent and the creation of new space and missile defence shields by 2020, as well as the “mass production of warships... and multi-purpose submarines”.

Nevertheless, Western diplomats detected signs of a new Russian flexibility during last month's UN General Assembly, when Moscow backed an extension of the Nato mandate in Afghanistan and agreed to a meeting on Iran's nuclear programme.

Frank Verrastro, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that oil prices had only fallen to last year's levels and cautioned that it would take more sustained price falls to trigger long-lasting changes by major oil producers.

“It's premature to say people are radically changing their behaviour,” he said. “I think they will, but not yet.”

Source:-Times Online



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