>Nifty premarket 17th may

hi friends,
                  Nifty continued its up move yesterday and its reaching the trend line to the upside resistance which comes near 6200-6220 need to see the reaction to ascertain further move .

 The daily chart continues to target 6250-80 as shown in below chart.

Happy trading...

>Nifty premarket 16th may

Hi friends,
                    Nifty  move yesterday confirmed that an abc finished at low of 5980, My expectation was we would test 5950 atleast before reversing but this reversed too soon plus with great strength and we have already conquered the previous high.Will wait for a day or 2 to ascertain the local count
bigger picture remain abcde what i showed in this post  NIFTY .

Happy trading...

>Nifty premarket 15th may

Hi friends,
                   Nifty after a steep fall yesterday full day consolidated in a range ,It can be either 4th or an x if abc finished at low,Today we will know about it, By the look of it,and by experience have seen the more the time it takes probability of X becomes high.The resistance comes near 6045-6050,support for the day 5980.

happy trading...

>Nifty premarket 14th may

Hi friends,
                      Nifty topped in 6120-6150 range as anticipated, now below 6040 nifty can be sideways to down for the day support comes near 5950-45 .

happy trading!!

>usdinr Elliotwave analysis

Hi friends,
                   USDINR buy call is doing good 53.50 to 55  old post usdinr,I expect this wave to finish near 56 and reverse.

Once usdinr takes resistance near 56 a short trade emerges and we can target back to 53 levels.
We could be making a flat correction in B wave ,Trailing sl of 54 should be maintained for longs.

happy trading...

>Nifty premarket 13th may

Hi friends,
                       Nifty followed the exact move had anticipated for Friday a fall to start with and ending with a rally to new high nifty ,Now with 6120 being crossed abcde is a reality.

As of now 6022 is the stop loss for all longs 6120-6150 i expect this upmove to topout for short term if 6150 is taken out then i would rework the things.

happy trading..

>Nifty pre market 10th may

hi friends
                 nifty continue to move in this two expanding lines with combinations of abc
this would violate this if 6020 goes else we continue to target 6100-6120 .

hold longs with 6000 as stoploss

happy trading...

>Nifty premarket 9th may

Hi friends ,
                   Nifty continues in e leg 6100-6150 max potential for this wave,If it goes above then
will have to consider alternate count

 lets see the move today to see further picture.Below is the alternate count if we breach 6120.

happy trading,,

>Nifty premarket 8th may

Hi friends,
                      As shown in yesterdays post nifty had a nice rally for e leg
This e has a potential to see 6100-6150 ,Todays move would be important to ascertain the further picture

 now below 5970 only weakness arises .
Happy trading..

>Nifty pre market 7th may

Hi friends,
                     Yesterday nifty squeeze continued for full session now the range has reduced
looking at the whole structure the following wave count could be a possibility if we sustain above

6010 ,Below 5930 nifty would be negative and can target 5800.If both levels hold we continue to be in a small range.

happy trading.!!

>Nifty intrday 6th may

Nifty is getting squeezed as shown in the chart below with lower tops
trend line breaks would produce fast move down..

>Nifty premarket 6th may

Hi friends,
                  In my previous post i had mentioned 5980-6000 level for nifty top for the current upmove
nifty managed to cross 6000 for a brief period of time and fell back i reckon a top is in place .
A sideway move to test the top again is a possibility as shown from the hourly chart.

The more the time nifty spends here it would make me think its some sort of corrective wave up
rather than an impulse up.
 The below daily chart shows the daily support of nifty its likely to test 5800 where the support comes
the exhaustion is seen in nifty ,Lastly we have seen sectors are not moving in unison so expecting
a clear trending move would be futile.

Trade wisely!!

>USDINR analysis

Hi Friends,
                   In my last post about usdinr had mentioned about a fall towards 53.50 today we
did 53.63.Here the risk reward for a long trade looks favorable .
last post USDINR wave structure would be invalid if  the usdinr goes below 52.80

Tomorrow being rbi policy day volatility would be young.
trade wisely
 

>Nifty pre market 30th april.

Hi friends,
                   Yesterday nifty crossed fridays high so now we can rise up to 78.6% retracement which
comes at 5983 ,Overall stocks are buzzing according to result ,For the day below 5890-80 mkt is weak can drift down to 5850.

With  may 3rd monetary policy volatility would be on a higher side .
Trade wisely
Happy trading..

>Nifty pre market 29th april

Hi friends,
                   Friday trading witnessed some good selling in select stocks ,Mostly was result related profit booking or selling

Nifty as we see from  hourly chart is showing exhaustion,We could be in for a short term top
if nifty fails to go above Fridays high  ,Or below 5850 it would be a confirmation that
we have finished A wave.Lets see how nifty behaves today to further get confirmation on the
count.
Happy trading!!!

>Maruti elliott wave analysis

Hi friends,
                   Maruti today touches an important trendline resis ,The slanting upward contracting
structure looks like a ending diagonal or rising wedge not confirmed neatly as the inner structure
is not that clear keep an eye on this till 1720 is not crossed we are in for a prominent top .

>Nifty end of day 25th april

Hi friends,
                     Nifty continues to go up in a spiky fashion ,A characteristic of X waves

running as if no tomorrow.
The hourly chart shows a parallel
up channel yet to be violated look for a breach the early sign of weakness fib shows this can conquer 5980-6000

>NIFTY medium term ANALYSIS

Hi friends,
                   Taking further from my last post on nifty ,Had stated x wave is on which can target 5900-6000

Now this x can take many shapes we need to wait and see its structure ,Its almost reached trendline
resistance which is coinciding with 61.8%  (5870-5900) .Above that can target (5980-6000) 78.6%.
once this wave ends nifty can see lower levels ,Here i would like to make a brave statement we can go towards 5000 and lower levels.In wave terms i am equating this whole pattern from 2010 nov highs as a big abc structure with c being in initial stages of unfolding .This wave count stands wrong
if we scale a new high above 2010 nov highs.

>TATAMOTORS TOPPING PATTERN FORMATION

Hi friends
                   Tata motors after witnessing multi year bull run ,Has started to show
exhaustion in strength as its evident by the corrections in short duration in a slanting
upward direction in technical terms we could be forming a rising wedge or in wave terms
ending diagonal with last leg of rise going on.

 As seen from the above chart this topping pattern has emerged after a multiyear extended
3rd wave.In 2008,Tata motors acquired the British car maker Jaguar Land Rover,There were lot of rumors about the difficulty by which Tatas funded the debt ,Well 2009 to 2010 saw extended 3rd wave rally in it :). 
In this final push up levels of 360 can be seen where investors should look to
book their profits and traders can look for shorting opportunity.Would be looking closely Tatamotors
for next few weeks:).

>USDINR Target

Hi friends,
                   USDINR has been in the range of 53 to 55.50 for many weeks now
When i breakdown the waves i see a lot of abc's around which indeed suggest of a rangebound
move to continue for some more time .
Trade idea can be  buy near 53.50 target would be 55.50-56
once we near 56 a short can be taken for a target of 53 again suggesting a lot of sideways move
coming forward.

Once we go below 53 or go above 56 we can rework the wave count.Lets see the USDINR move in coming days.

>Nifty analysis

Hi Friends,
                   Today nifty took 5650 resistance and closed above that ,Which suggests W is done
and we are in for a X wave a retest of 5650 would give strength to the move ,The next big resistance
comes near 5800+ levels .The next few days would shape up how the structure of X wave evolves

.

>Nifty 15th april

Hi friends,
                   Nifty continues to squeeze

The structure suggests a labored rise towards 5650-5700 and if it fails to sustain above  5650
after that  a swift fall towards 5480-5450 would be expected to form the pattern .Next few days move would clear picture ,Range squeeze continues :).

>INFOSYS WAVE ANALYSIS

Hi friends,
                  Infosys has become darling of speculators ,Result day is a big satta day you would see
a big move either side.Wave wise Infosys finished c of big B and started big C down as shown in following chart ,It has a potential to touch 1800 atleast .

>Nifty bearish scenario

Hi friends,
                   The nifty has been in a down move for quite some time now .Its been a slow drag
with in between fast bouts of dump.
Wave wise looking at structure on a weekly chart it suggests we could be in for a serious damage

in coming months after a relief rally ,I would suggest to book profits in coming rises and come out from struck positions after some relief.
We could be in making of big ABC structure which if materializes can seriously damage ones portfolio ,Would rather say has already damaged ,Ask someone having midcap portfolio.
Coming back to charts nifty is forming a squeeze which should give a relief rally in some time
Nifty support lies in 5470-5400 range

>Nifty january expiry..

Hi friends,
                Nifty continues to hover near 6050 i feel a upside push is waiting to happen 

towards 6080-6100+ at least to finish the pattern   tomorrow being expiry day
6100 call or on breakdown 6000 put looks hero or zero bet.
I would reckon if 6000 is held today i would be betting for 6100 or safer bet 6000 call.
happy expiry speculation:)...

>Nifty elliot wave january 2013

Hi Friends,
                 As the following chart shows  we are witnessing a impulse from 5620
The chart has been labeled which suggests we in 5 th of the impulse started from 5620. 

      The 5th could very well be evolving in the ending diagonal on hourly chart ,As we see its 
a combination of 3's every where in 5th wave by this we can say  if 6010 holds in futures 
we can witness another up before a abc fall can start else if 6010 goes before rise ,That means 
the impulse got over at todays high.            



RESEARCH REPORTS

Hello Friends..

Hi friends,
                  I would be actively posting my analysis and calls again.
Almost after a year,
Happy blogging.

RESEARCH REPORTS 

>Nifty Analysis April

Nifty hits the first resistance area of 5650 and remained below that.
According to the wave structure we are probably in B leg .A finished near 5630
We are witnessing a messy fall from 5630 .I have resolved it as a triple zigzag
wxyxz.

The above chart shows triple zigzag .Ideally if nifty fails to go above 5400
we should witness 4900-4850 levels in Z leg.
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliotwave analysis feb 27th

As for the previous post had expected nifty to stop near 5650 or keep going up.
It has stopped near 5650 and profit booking emerged .Read old post (NIFTY)
Now on the downside 5370-50 is a good support band if this is saved nifty can attempt
rise towards 5550 and well may end up making a lower top by this weekend.
lets see how waves unfold by this weekendthe picture would get lot clearer.Many midcaps which had spiked violently are cooling off ,Its prudent to wait till
nifty shows upside strength .

RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

We witnessed a maddening rally in nifty which even overshot my estimates.
I had 5250 in my mind (NIFTY )when i had posted my wave counts.
Well now since we have overshot those levels and even the slanting down channel
has broken up ,I assume WXYXZ was done near 4531.What we are witnessing now is a
new wave.
The upmove from 4531 is corrective in nature i cannot lable it as a impulse atleast
i am not able to,Would reckon we are making a bigger X or B ,Which can top between
5650-5951 and then we again start a multimonth downmove to a new low below 4531.
The above chart shows my view this is count is still in its earlier stages ,Would refind it
as we reach for apex or i get more confirmation.The X or B wave structure is debatable
need more time and wave structure to justify it can directly go to 5650-5950 or can go after
a dip we will know that in coming days.So till next post keep fingers crossed we are entering
a important phase .
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

Nifty is still buzzing according to the counts posted earlier
can go through the earlier post here nifty.
I have an alternate count for the structure unfolding
we have to see which one works out ,This new count would
just make the C up target little more .The alternate count says the X wave is still on and its forming an bear market
expanded flat read about expandedflat .For this to be a expanded flat we
need 5 up in C .Let the wave unfold and we will know the respective targets.
Elliott wave gives sleek edge in forecast market move but I have
learned with experience we have to wait patiently to see the pattern evolving from
the random price move.
The above chart shows the internal structure of the would be expanded flat.
According to the earlier count we have almost hit first target of 5100.Exciting time
ahead for traders.Also i would take liberty to say i don't think market has made
the bottom.This rise was seen as i had posted the chart by last week of December 2011
so its not a surprise .Well who knows i could be wrong :)

RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty wave analysis

In my last few posts,I stressed on the rise coming in ,We are witnessing the rise
Though its not that fast in nifty but midcaps and small caps are gaining ground
and have gained handsomely .
Coming back to nifty we had ending diagonal count which almost looks like getting
negated now, With nifty breaching past the slanting trendline. The kind of rises
we saw in midcaps nifty should have done better than this but reliance and infy
made sure nifty remains subdued .Its moving in a parallel up channel and been
holding up smartly ,Need to see the move of next few days to figure out about
the parallel up channel labeling the speed of the move would help me decide
on the count ,As of now trail longs with stoplosses are previous swing low .
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty view

Nifty has turned volatile and range bound in a range and its not easy
to squeeze in a trade its good to sit out till a range break emerges.
Ending diagonal view holds true if we test 4850-88 and reverse back violently
Sectors are not moving in unison so its better to give time to nifty .
The view of the big abc would be activated if 4888 is taken out .
Two counts had posted earlier were
NIFTY1
NIFTY2
Nifty1 is big abc view
Nifty 2 is ending diagonal view
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Indian stock market outlook for year 2012

Year 2011 was a troublesome year as far as equity market is concerned.
2011 saw nifty correcting 25% from a high of 6181 to a low of 4531.
Year 2011 was not a trending market it unfolded in complex waves
which rises or reverses without giving much confirmation or clues.
We witnessed steep falls followed by steep rises ,With rises competing
with falls in speed.
Year 2011 saw nifty unfolding in WXYXZ with Z entering in year 2012
which is the last leg of this complex 5 waves.Here the classic similarity
between alternate X wave retraced previous complex wave by 60% and
above which shows us how tedious was it for a short term trader to trade.
The above chart shows the respective waves.

Year 2012 is expected to be trending market
as compared to year 2011 we should witness good rally after we finish Z which should
see many value and badly beaten midcap stocks to rise back considerably ,Would be
concentrating on infra segment ,Indian story depends lot on this sector.To sum up
wxyxz should finish a A of larger degree should see a big B unfolding after that,
Would elaborate more on this as the wave starts to unfold,Overall this year should
give good trading opportunity to a shrewd trader.
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliottwave analysis

Over the weekend went through top 10 nifty stocks ,I think one more
possible scenario can emerge where nifty makes a endng diagonal,in
simple terms falling wedge,As of now i can see only 3 waves in each leg
so we need to keep a option open for ending diagonal possibility
Any how both counts suggest rise before fall.
Get a clear wave view in below labled hourly chart each leg shows 3 wave move.This
count suggests a move upto 4900+-50 where it finds resistance.
For the other count go through the previous post nifty counts
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliott wave analysis

As i have already stated we in Z corrective wave which again would be a
corrective wave combination of abc's or simple abc.
From the structure developing i am anticipating we have finished A leg 4639
and then started a big B leg which again is unfolding in abc structure
which already completed a and b leg and right now getting ready to pump up
in c to finish the big B we could well see a fast run up and nifty could see 5050,5100
in no time it this count is correct.

After that we can see the big C down unfolding.Lets see how market behaves
if it does something else i would revist counts.
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty analysis

At last a nifty update,Nifty almost did as i thought in wave terms
It went to 4640 then from there went to 5080+ and collapsed.
Read old post nifty counts
As of now its wait and watch we need to see reaction near 4650
levels to ascertain the further course of action,Slowly trading would
become quite tuff save money fellow traders you would get unbelievable
rates to buy at a later stage.



RESEARCH REPORTS

>Indian rupee(INR)analysis

In recent times we saw 2008 financial crisis and the present eurozone credit crisis.
India also saw 2 major financial crises which led to 2 subsequent INR devaluation.

Foreign currency reserves are very critical aspect of any country's ability to engage in commerce
with other countries.
Usually the larger the foreign currency reserves the better the country is placed to fight
any financial crisis.India saw two major financial crises in year 1966 and 1991

1966 DEVALUATION

As a developing economy, it is to be expected that India would import more than it exports. Despite government attempts to obtain a positive trade balance, India has had consistent balance of payment deficits since the 1950s. The 1966 devaluation was the result of the first major financial crisis the government faced.

6 June, 1966: Rupee is devalued, Rs 4.76 = $1, after devaluation, Rs 7.50 = $1 (57.5%)

1991 DEVALUATION

In 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the value of a basket of currencies of major trading partners. At the end of 1990, the Government of India found itself in serious economic trouble. The government was close to default and its foreign exchange reserves had dried up to the point that India could barely finance three weeks’ worth of imports. In July of 1991 the Indian government devalued the rupee by between 18 and 19 percent.

March 1993: Unified exchange rate: $1 = Rs 31.37

We recently saw a all time low of$1= Rs 52.73 nov(22) 2011


USDINR monthly chart suggests their could be some consolidation between 54 to 48 levels
before going towards 58-60 .How its gonna effect economy need to be seen.

In 2008 nifty had fallen 51.8% (6136-2959)closing basis USDINR had rocketed to 52.50 by march 2009.

In 2011 we have fallen 17.9% (6177-5039) closing basis USDINR already touched a all time
high of 52.73
Testing time for economy ahead .

RESEARCH REPORTS

>Mahindra & mahindra analysis

In my last post mahindra & mahindra analysis we had seen how
a violent 3rd wave eroded price valuenow since the sharp down channel
has been broken and still the rise i count looks corrective to me so a 4th
wave is on this should hit new low in some time below 680 at leastonce 5 down finishes can expected relief in the stock .
RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty analysis update

Nifty continues to fall, with small sideways uppish blips in between.Relentless selling
Anyone who tried catching this falling knife,Would surely have got burnt badly.
The chart shows a sleep parallel channel and we are yet to break that channel.
The fall has even breached the double bottom support 4700.
The parallel channel fall suggests we are still in 3rd wave fall ,I would give some more
time to nifty before deciding on targets again so till then take it easy.
MONEY SAVED IS MONEY MADE!!!!!!
RESEARCH REPORTS

>stubborn 3rd wave in impulse(elliottwave)

Usually most of wave traders spend most of their time on charts trying to catch stubborn 3rdwave. As the rule says 3rd waves are usually the longest and fastest in terms of price
travel .It requires lot of practice and imaginative mind to figure out the perfect wave setup
for trade,With practice one can get hold of waves unfolding which in turn gives a solid edge
in timing much better than any indicator can provide.
Few things which can improve your wave counting ability!!
1)Count waves from a higher time frame and then gradually come to lower time frames.
2) Always try to count waves from important lows or highs.
3) Go through as many charts possible.
4)Counting impulse(5 waves) is easier than counting a correction or abc:).
5) Label the chart with your count with date and check at a later date how you fared.
this should be a daily routine,This can help in understanding market moves in detail.
6)Always have a alternative count in mind and as market moves figure out which count
fits best.
7) Gap ups and gap downs usually happen in 3rd wave,Also indicators can be in oversold or overbought for most of the time when market travels in 3rdwave.

I am attaching a chart of a stock punjloyd to show the wave counts
the green arrows are 3rd wavesHope these points help in counting waves cleanly.


RESEARCH REPORTS

>Mahindra and Mahindra analysis update

Auto sector as had mentioned witnessed sharp fall.M&M ,TATAMOTORS ,BAJAJ AUTO ,MARUTI ETC witnessed sharp falls,In my old post Auto sector had given analysis of the
auto sector heavy weight m&m it reacted sharply to the resistance and is already 100+ points down from top.It looks to be falling in impulse which suggests it would turnout to be a good
short again in rises keep an eye.A chart is attached to shown vicious impulse still on.


RESEARCH REPORTS

>Nifty elliott wave counts

Turbulence galore!!!
In my last nifty post nifty analysis had mentioned about Y ending in 4700-4600 range
we reversed from 4700+-20 points,Had categorically written about a good relief rally .
We did see fantastic pullback(4700-5400)a three wave move suggesting another complex
corrective wave.The following chart shows that.
The first chart shows the 3 wave up X relief.The second chart is weekly which is showing the
expected abc unfolding over next few months,a can be finishing near 4700+-50
b can go back up to 5000+-50 the final c can go to 4500 levels if it stretches then 4200-4000.
The point to stress here is you see each abc retraced 60% of previous abc ,Which usually happens in complex corrections,That's the reason we are yet to see panic in Indian markets as the rises retracing the drops upto 60% and dropping again so a slow drop nevertheless lowertops continuously !!!!!!,Would update if market does something else.

RESEARCH REPORTS

>Mahindra and Mahindra elliottwave analysis

Auto sector has been not in sync with nifty few stocks are sideways ,Few are trending up
and few trending down .

M&M holds the highest weightage followed by tatamotors ,Bajaj auto , heromotoco and
maruti suzuki

I think this sector would peakout in some time and investors should book their profits in
this sector

M&M Looks to have finished 5 up on monthly charts or about to finish may kiss 850 once
Tatamotors is already in downtrend

on daily charts M&M wave count is labled on following chart followed by 5 up in monthly
chart
On daily chart we are in process of finishing some sort of B up here we could be making a triangle or a flat in any case a 25% correction is not ruled out from current levels .

lets see how this sector behave in coming months can update accordingly .
RESEARCH REPORTS

>NIFTY Elliot wave counts

The nifty counts for the short term is labeled on the following chart .I have resolved the fall from 6338 high in nov 2010 as a complex correction
we have done the W and X part of the complex structure and are in fag end of Y
The internal structure of wxy consists of 3 wave each as can be seen from the above chart
The c of Y can end in the BAND of 4700-4600,And expect good relief from their .

RESEARCH REPORTS

>Top 10 debt ridden countries

With American debt becoming the talk of every economist lets look at it what it is in simple words.

Debt definition according to wilipedia
A debt is that which one party, the debtor, owes to a second party, the creditor; usually this refers to assets owed, but the term can also be used metaphorically to cover moral obligations and other interactions not based on economic value.

10 most indebted developed countries
Countries	Debt as % of GDP	Size of debt ( $ bn)
Japan	234	13,795
Greece	139	434
Italy	120	2,564
Iceland	108	16
Belgium	103	504
Ireland	102	220
USA	99	14,270
Singapore	95	254
France	88	2,365
Portugal	87	202

Source IMF, 2010.

The credit crunch brought this debt issue center stage,
In these financially gloomy times its every country priority to see how they can reduce their national debt .
In the past Americal FED came up with QE1 AND QE2
Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank buys financial assets to inject a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy. This is distinguished from the more usual policy of buying or selling financial assets to keep market interest rates at a specified target value.

whispers are already heard about QE3 Coming ,will that happen or not we will know soon ,
If QE3 comes be ready to see short term liquidity flood in emerging markets whichin turn
should fuel inflation to them.
RESEARCH REPORTS